IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel

Agricultural output growth achieved through forest-cover loss has weaker poverty-reduction returns and worse emissions outcomes than output growth without forest loss.

REFUTEDengine/runs/forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel

REFUTED — coef=+0.0882 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000928

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether trade openness is actually linked to better or worse poverty headcount from 1980 to 2024.

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.0882 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000928

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Trade openness
What we checked
  • Poverty headcount
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel
1007550250198020022024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_headcount across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedChicago School Monetarismwins if REFUTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if REFUTEDschool supportedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit dcd2199 · 2026-05-22T22:28:02Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:07Z

Agricultural output growth achieved through forest-cover loss has weaker poverty-reduction returns and worse emissions outcomes than output growth without forest loss.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

First-pass panel fixed effects screen. Multi-outcome or threshold language from the source backlog should be upgraded to a bespoke replication before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level
trade_openness
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.0882 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.000928

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Agricultural output growth achieved through forest-cover loss has weaker poverty-reduction returns and worse emissions outcomes than output growth without forest loss.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_forest_loss_agricultural_growth_tradeoff_panel

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0882
  • Std error: 0.02658
  • p-value: 0.000928
  • Observations: 1542, countries: 128
  • Within R²: 0.303
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → poverty_headcount (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:07+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_D_sectoral_data_rich.md. Backlog source families: WDI agriculture/forest/poverty, OWID emissions.. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.