IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024

Across OECD and high-income economies 1980-2024, real wage growth at the productivity frontier is stronger in countries with more competitive product markets and lower barriers to firm entry.

The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation improvement in product-market competition is associated with at least 0.4 percentage points higher annual real wage growth and at least 0.3 percentage points higher labour-productivity growth, after controlling for initial income, trade openness, union density, and sectoral composition.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:avwage_growth_real', 'oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growth', 'ilo:median_wages_real_growth']

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefNot enough data

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:avwage_growth_real', 'oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growth', 'ilo:median_wages_real_growth']

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 34 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Product market competition index
  • Barriers to entry index
What we checked
  • Real wage growth
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Median real wage growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

10 input datasets, 2 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024
1007550250198020022024USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_wage_growth across 34 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:49Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across OECD and high-income economies 1980-2024, real wage growth at the productivity frontier is stronger in countries with more competitive product markets and lower barriers to firm entry. The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation improvement in product-market competition is associated with at least 0.4 percentage points higher annual real wage growth and at least 0.3 percentage points higher labour-productivity growth, after controlling for initial income, trade openness, union density, and sectoral composition.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) the coefficient on product-market competition is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on real wage growth, OR (b) the coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on labour- productivity growth, OR (c) the implied effect of a one-SD competition improvement on real wage growth is below 0.20 pp/year. A "monopsony- power / rent-sharing" reading wins if coefficients are negative (suggesting more competition hurts worker bargaining power).

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_product_market_competition_on_real_wage_growth
threshold: panel_FE_beta(competition → real_wage_growth) > 0 at p<0.05 AND panel_FE_beta(competition → labour_productivity_growth) > 0 at p<0.05 AND implied_effect_per_1sd_competition_on_wages >= 0.40 pp/yr

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
34 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Panel FE with real-wage and labour-productivity growth outcomes on product-market competition index. Identification from within-country variation in PMR reforms (e.g. UK 1980s deregulation, EU Services Directive implementation, Japan 1990s deregulation). Robustness: exclude small open economies where trade competition dominates; control for minimum-wage policy changes; use only PMR-available countries.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_wage_growth
outcome
oecd:avwage_growth_realtier 2
level
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growthtier 2
level
median_real_wage_growth
outcome
ilo:median_wages_real_growthtier 2
level
product_market_competition_index
treatment
constructed:0.6×oecd_pmr:overall_pmr + 0.4×fraser_efw:regulation_businesstier 5
level
barriers_to_entry_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entrytier 4
level
fraser_efw_competition
treatment
fraser_efw:competition_policytier 4
level
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
union_density
control
oecd:union_densitytier 2
level
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
real_interest_rate
control
world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINRtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — frontier_real_wage_growth_market_competition_1980_2024

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:avwage_growth_real', 'oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growth', 'ilo:median_wages_real_growth']

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across OECD and high-income economies 1980-2024, real wage growth at the productivity frontier is stronger in countries with more competitive product markets and lower barriers to firm entry. The pre-registered claim is that a one-standard-deviation improvement in product-market competition is associated with at least 0.4 percentage points higher annual real wage growth and at least 0.3 percentage points higher labour-productivity growth, after controlling for initial income, trade openness, union density, and sectoral composition.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) the coefficient on product-market competition is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on real wage growth, OR (b) the coefficient is not positive and significant at p<0.05 on labour- productivity growth, OR (c) the implied effect of a one-SD competition improvement on real wage growth is below 0.20 pp/year. A "monopsony- power / rent-sharing" reading wins if coefficients are negative (suggesting more competition hurts worker bargaining power).
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_product_market_competition_on_real_wage_growth

Estimate

  • Error: no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['oecd:avwage_growth_real', 'oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growth', 'ilo:median_wages_real_growth']

Variables resolved

  • constructed: 0.6×oecd_pmr:overall_pmr + 0.4×fraser_efw:regulation_business → product_market_competition_index (treatment, publisher=product_market_competition_index, n=1530)
  • oecd_pmr:barriers_to_entry → barriers_to_entry_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_initial_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:FR.INR.RINR → real_interest_rate (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=4694)

Variables missing data

  • oecd:avwage_growth_real (outcome, name=real_wage_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:gdp_per_hour_worked_growth (outcome, name=labour_productivity_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • ilo:median_wages_real_growth (outcome, name=median_real_wage_growth) — vintage not on disk
  • fraser_efw:competition_policy (treatment, name=fraser_efw_competition) — vintage not on disk
  • oecd:union_density (controls, name=union_density) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:49+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

OECD PMR indicators are available from 1998 onward with some back-casting. Fraser EFW business-regulation sub-index extends to 1980. The composite will have uneven coverage in the 1980s; this is flagged as a measurement limitation.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.