IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·government_consumption_share_tfp

Higher government-consumption shares predict weaker TFP growth after controlling for public investment, education, and health spending, across a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to 2020.

PARTIALengine/runs/government_consumption_share_tfp

PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001719, p=0.949 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether government consumption share is actually linked to better or worse productivity growth from 1970 to 2020.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=+0.0001719, p=0.949 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 32 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Government consumption share
What we checked
  • Productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

7 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/government_consumption_share_tfp
1007550250197019952020USAGBRDEUFRAJPNITAESP
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth across 32 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for government_consumption_share_tfp. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/government_consumption_share_tfp/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

11 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:22Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Higher government-consumption shares predict weaker TFP growth after controlling for public investment, education, and health spending, across a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to 2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on government_consumption_share is negative with p<=0.05 and the absolute magnitude exceeds 0.03 percentage points of annual TFP growth per one-percentage-point increase in the consumption share. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive with p<=0.05 and magnitude >=0.03pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_gov_consumption_tfp
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
32 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
associational

PanelOLS with country and year fixed effects, cluster-robust SEs by country. Government consumption share is entered in levels and lagged by one year to reduce simultaneity.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_log_growth
government_consumption_share
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZStier 2
level
public_investment_share
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZStier 2
level
secondary_enrolment
control
world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.ENRRtier 2
level
life_expectancy
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.INtier 2
level
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — government_consumption_share_tfp

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=+0.0001719, p=0.949 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Higher government-consumption shares predict weaker TFP growth after controlling for public investment, education, and health spending, across a broad panel of advanced and emerging economies from 1970 to 2020.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the coefficient on government_consumption_share is negative with p<=0.05 and the absolute magnitude exceeds 0.03 percentage points of annual TFP growth per one-percentage-point increase in the consumption share. REFUTED if the coefficient is positive with p<=0.05 and magnitude >=0.03pp. Otherwise PARTIAL.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_gov_consumption_tfp

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.0001719
  • Std error: 0.002694
  • p-value: 0.949
  • Observations: 479, countries: 26
  • Within R²: -0.258
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.CON.GOVT.ZS → government_consumption_share (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9133)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.FTOT.ZS → public_investment_share (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9870)
  • world_bank_wdi:SE.SEC.ENRR → secondary_enrolment (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8175)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.DYN.LE00.IN → life_expectancy (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14443)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:22+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.