IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity

India's digital public infrastructure stack — Aadhaar (universal biometric ID, 2009-2016 build-out), UPI (Unified Payments Interface launched 2016), and the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan accounts + Aadhaar + Mobile) — produced productivity gains visible in formal-sector employment, financial-inclusion measures, and government-to-person transfer leakage reduction.

By 2022, account-ownership (% age 15+) for IND rises to >75% from <40% in 2011, an increase exceeding the EM peer panel mean (BRA, IDN, MEX, NGA, PHL, ZAF) gain by at least +20 percentage points over the same window.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (27)

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. insufficient observations after listwise deletion (27)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2011 to 2021, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post jam buildout indicator
What we checked
  • Account ownership age15 pct
  • Digital payment made pct
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity
1007550250201120162021INDBRAIDNMEXNGAPHLZAF
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show account_ownership_age15_pct across 7 sampled countries over 2011–2021.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's digital public infrastructure stack — Aadhaar (universal biometric ID, 2009-2016 build-out), UPI (Unified Payments Interface launched 2016), and the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan accounts + Aadhaar + Mobile) — produced productivity gains visible in formal-sector employment, financial-inclusion measures, and government-to-person transfer leakage reduction. By 2022, account-ownership (% age 15+) for IND rises to >75% from <40% in 2011, an increase exceeding the EM peer panel mean (BRA, IDN, MEX, NGA, PHL, ZAF) gain by at least +20 percentage points over the same window.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if account-ownership pct (age 15+, Findex via WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS) for IND rises by at least +35 percentage points 2011 to 2021, AND IND increase exceeds the EM peer panel mean (BRA, IDN, MEX, NGA, PHL, ZAF) increase by at least +20pp. REFUTED if IND increase is below +20pp absolute OR below the peer panel mean increase.

formal test & threshold
test:      india_jam_findex_account_ownership_differential_2011_2021
threshold: PRIMARY: findex_account(IND, 2021) - findex_account(IND, 2011) >= 35 AND differential vs peer-panel-mean >= 20. METHOD_VALID: WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS available for IND and peer pool 2011-2021.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2011 – 2021
Evidence type
associational

Difference-in-differences on financial-inclusion measure with EM peer pool. Findex waves: 2011, 2014, 2017, 2021.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
account_ownership_age15_pct
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FX.OWN.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
digital_payment_made_pct
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FX.OWN.TOTL.PL.ZStier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
post_jam_buildout_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2014tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — india_extra_aadhaar_upi_productivity

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — insufficient observations after listwise deletion (27)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's digital public infrastructure stack — Aadhaar (universal biometric ID, 2009-2016 build-out), UPI (Unified Payments Interface launched 2016), and the JAM trinity (Jan Dhan accounts + Aadhaar + Mobile) — produced productivity gains visible in formal-sector employment, financial-inclusion measures, and government-to-person transfer leakage reduction. By 2022, account-ownership (% age 15+) for IND rises to >75% from <40% in 2011, an increase exceeding the EM peer panel mean (BRA, IDN, MEX, NGA, PHL, ZAF) gain by at least +20 percentage points over the same window.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if account-ownership pct (age 15+, Findex via WDI FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS) for IND rises by at least +35 percentage points 2011 to 2021, AND IND increase exceeds the EM peer panel mean (BRA, IDN, MEX, NGA, PHL, ZAF) increase by at least +20pp. REFUTED if IND increase is below +20pp absolute OR below the peer panel mean increase.
  • Falsification test: india_jam_findex_account_ownership_differential_2011_2021

Estimate

  • Error: insufficient observations after listwise deletion (27)

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FX.OWN.TOTL.ZS → account_ownership_age15_pct (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=784)
  • world_bank_wdi:FX.OWN.TOTL.PL.ZS → digital_payment_made_pct (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=757)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2014 → post_jam_buildout_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=77)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests financial-inclusion channel as an observable productivity proxy. Account-ownership (Findex) and digital-payment usage are the cleanest observable outputs of the digital-infrastructure programme. Productivity attribution is harder; the financial-inclusion test is the conservative primary, with TFP-growth differential reported as informative.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.