IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024

India's Modi-era growth 2014-2024 — covering GST implementation 2017, IBC bankruptcy reform 2016, infrastructure capex push, PLI manufacturing schemes 2020-2024 — produced a per-capita GDP growth rate that is comparable to but not materially above the 2004-2013 UPA-era pre-COVID trend.

The differential vs the EM peer panel (BRA, IDN, MEX, TUR, ZAF, PHL) is at most +0.5 percentage points per year on real GDP-pc growth averaged over the full 2014-2024 window (including COVID years).

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024

SUPPORTED — coef=+1.095 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0489

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+1.095 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0489

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 7 country or place units from 2004 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post modi indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Real income growth
  • Gross capital formation pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024
1007550250200420142024INDBRAIDNMEXTURZAFPHL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 7 sampled countries over 2004–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's Modi-era growth 2014-2024 — covering GST implementation 2017, IBC bankruptcy reform 2016, infrastructure capex push, PLI manufacturing schemes 2020-2024 — produced a per-capita GDP growth rate that is comparable to but not materially above the 2004-2013 UPA-era pre-COVID trend. The differential vs the EM peer panel (BRA, IDN, MEX, TUR, ZAF, PHL) is at most +0.5 percentage points per year on real GDP-pc growth averaged over the full 2014-2024 window (including COVID years).

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if mean real GDP-pc growth IND 2014-2024 minus mean 2004-2013 is at most +0.5pp/yr (no major acceleration). REFUTED if the differential exceeds +1.5pp/yr (clear acceleration claim vindicated). INFORMATIVE (not gating): 2014-2019 sub-window mean growth vs 2004-2013 mean growth (excludes COVID drag).

formal test & threshold
test:      india_modi_era_growth_vs_upa_era_continuation
threshold: PRIMARY: gdp_pc_growth(IND, 2014-2024) - gdp_pc_growth(IND, 2004-2013) <= 0.005. REFUTING: same diff > 0.015. METHOD_VALID: WDI NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG available for IND through 2024.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
7 countries · 2004 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with EM peer pool. Test 1: country-level pre-post on India 2004-2013 vs 2014-2024. Test 2: panel DiD with peer pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
real_gdp_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
post_modi_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2014tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — india_extra_modi_era_growth_2014_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+1.095 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0489

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's Modi-era growth 2014-2024 — covering GST implementation 2017, IBC bankruptcy reform 2016, infrastructure capex push, PLI manufacturing schemes 2020-2024 — produced a per-capita GDP growth rate that is comparable to but not materially above the 2004-2013 UPA-era pre-COVID trend. The differential vs the EM peer panel (BRA, IDN, MEX, TUR, ZAF, PHL) is at most +0.5 percentage points per year on real GDP-pc growth averaged over the full 2014-2024 window (including COVID years).
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive): SUPPORTED if mean real GDP-pc growth IND 2014-2024 minus mean 2004-2013 is at most +0.5pp/yr (no major acceleration). REFUTED if the differential exceeds +1.5pp/yr (clear acceleration claim vindicated). INFORMATIVE (not gating): 2014-2019 sub-window mean growth vs 2004-2013 mean growth (excludes COVID drag).
  • Falsification test: india_modi_era_growth_vs_upa_era_continuation

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +1.095
  • Std error: 0.5502
  • p-value: 0.0489
  • Observations: 147, countries: 7
  • Within R²: -0.00575
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for IND, year >= 2014 → post_modi_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=147)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Distinguishes "Modi-era growth was good" (likely true vs DM peers) from "Modi-era growth was a structural break above prior Indian trend" (likely false). Tests against the immediate predecessor decade and an EM peer panel.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.