IESET.
Hypotheses·monetary·latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024

Across Latin American economies 1999-2024, the staggered adoption of formal inflation-targeting central-bank regimes (Brazil 1999, Chile 1999, Colombia 1999, Mexico 2001, Peru 2002, Guatemala 2005, Uruguay 2007, Paraguay 2011, Dominican Republic 2012, Costa Rica 2018) reduced average inflation and inflation volatility relative to a non-adopting comparison group, without an associated growth penalty.

The pre-registered claim is (a) Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on cpi_inflation_yoy shows a negative average treatment effect at p < 0.10, AND (b) inflation volatility (5-year rolling SD) declines post-adoption, AND (c) cumulative log GDP-pc growth post-adoption is not below the non-adopter comparison.

PARTIALengine/runs/latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024

PARTIAL — ATT=-56.15, p=3.31e-286, N=458, treated_countries=10; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether inflation targeting indicator is actually linked to better or worse cpi inflation yoy from 1995 to 2024.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. ATT=-56.15, p=3.31e-286, N=458, treated_countries=10; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because monetary claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 1995 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Inflation targeting indicator
What we checked
  • Cpi inflation yoy
  • Inflation volatility
  • Log income pc constant
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024
1007550250199520102024ARGBOLBRACHLCOLCRIDOM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show cpi_inflation_yoy across 20 sampled countries over 1995–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T14:42:43Z

Across Latin American economies 1999-2024, the staggered adoption of formal inflation-targeting central-bank regimes (Brazil 1999, Chile 1999, Colombia 1999, Mexico 2001, Peru 2002, Guatemala 2005, Uruguay 2007, Paraguay 2011, Dominican Republic 2012, Costa Rica 2018) reduced average inflation and inflation volatility relative to a non-adopting comparison group, without an associated growth penalty. The pre-registered claim is (a) Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on cpi_inflation_yoy shows a negative average treatment effect at p < 0.10, AND (b) inflation volatility (5-year rolling SD) declines post-adoption, AND (c) cumulative log GDP-pc growth post-adoption is not below the non-adopter comparison.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if (a) DiD ATT on cpi_inflation_yoy is not negative at p < 0.10, OR (b) within-country inflation volatility (5-yr rolling SD) does not decline post-adoption, OR (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc growth post-adoption is materially below the non-adopter comparison (a more-than-trivial growth penalty).

formal test & threshold
test:      callaway_santanna_did_plus_volatility_plus_growth_check
threshold: DiD_ATT(cpi_inflation_yoy) < 0 at p < 0.10 AND within_country_SD_inflation_post < within_country_SD_inflation_pre AND cumulative_log_gdp_pc_post(adopters) - cumulative_log_gdp_pc_post(non_adopters) >= -0.05

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 1995 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on cpi_inflation_yoy with multiple adoption dates 1999-2018. Secondary: pre/post inflation-volatility comparison. Tertiary: cumulative GDP-pc growth comparison post-adoption.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
cpi_inflation_yoy
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
inflation_volatility
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
rolling_5yr_sd
log_gdp_pc_constant
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
inflation_targeting_indicator
treatment
constructed:country-year binary by adoption date (BRA/CHL/COL 1999, MEX 2001, PER 2002, GTM 2005, URY 2007, PRY 2011, DOM 2012, CRI tier 5
binary
oil_price
control
fred:DCOILBRENTEUtier 1
log_level
us_policy_rate
control
fred:FEDFUNDStier 1
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level
wgi_government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — latam_extra_inflation_targeting_diff_in_diff_1999_2024

Verdict: PARTIAL — ATT=-56.15, p=3.31e-286, N=458, treated_countries=10; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across Latin American economies 1999-2024, the staggered adoption of formal inflation-targeting central-bank regimes (Brazil 1999, Chile 1999, Colombia 1999, Mexico 2001, Peru 2002, Guatemala 2005, Uruguay 2007, Paraguay 2011, Dominican Republic 2012, Costa Rica 2018) reduced average inflation and inflation volatility relative to a non-adopting comparison group, without an associated growth penalty. The pre-registered claim is (a) Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD on cpi_inflation_yoy shows a negative average treatment effect at p < 0.10, AND (b) inflation volatility (5-year rolling SD) declines post-adoption, AND (c) cumulative log GDP-pc growth post-adoption is not below the non-adopter comparison.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if (a) DiD ATT on cpi_inflation_yoy is not negative at p < 0.10, OR (b) within-country inflation volatility (5-yr rolling SD) does not decline post-adoption, OR (c) cumulative log_gdp_pc growth post-adoption is materially below the non-adopter comparison (a more-than-trivial growth penalty).

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • coefficient: -56.15236234008994
  • std_error: 1.5531779327954518
  • p_value: 3.3129877187397685e-286
  • n_obs: 458
  • n_countries: 20
  • r_squared_within: 0.525352069470683
  • fe_entity: True
  • fe_time: True
  • cluster: country
  • method: Callaway-Sant'Anna TWFE fallback (linearmodels failed: No module named 'linearmodels')
  • n_treated_countries: 10
  • cohort_years: [1996]
  • dropped_controls_due_to_overlap: []

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → cpi_inflation_yoy (outcome, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation_volatility (outcome, n=9066)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc_constant (outcome, n=14066)
  • constructed: country-year binary by adoption date (BRA/CHL/COL 1999, MEX 2001, PER 2002, GTM 2005, URY 2007, PRY 2011, DOM 2012, CRI 2018) → inflation_targeting_indicator (treatment, n=600)
  • fred:DCOILBRENTEU → oil_price (controls, n=800)
  • fred:FEDFUNDS → us_policy_rate (controls, n=1460)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)
  • world_bank_wgi:GOV_WGI_GE.EST → wgi_government_effectiveness (controls, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-04-30T14:42:43+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Canonical staggered-DiD design covering the LATAM-wide adoption of inflation-targeting frameworks 1999-2018.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.