IESET.
Hypotheses·labour·minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects

High-bite minimum wages (statutory floors that approach or exceed the local 50th percentile of the age-specific wage distribution) produce a multi-stage causal chain.

FIRST-ORDER: wage floors do rise for employed workers who retain their jobs — this effect is real, measurable and acknowledged. SECOND-ORDER: employment rates for teens, young immigrants, low-skill entrants, and workers in high-bite sub-regions diverge negatively from synthetic controls, with hours reductions, reduced promotion-probability, and tradable-sector job reallocation away from affected regions. THIRD-ORDER: the productivity ladder that moves workers from first-job wages to wages well above the minimum breaks down; informal-sector employment share rises; the share of young people neither in employment nor education (NEET) increases persistently, entrenching long-run human-capital damage. Cases: Seattle 2015-2017 above-$13 hike, NYC fast-food $15 minimum 2019, California state-wide $15-to-$16 schedule, UK National Living Wage 2016-2024 schedule, German Mindestlohn 2015 introduction and 2022 €12 hike.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — minimum-wage data gate failed; missing state/subnational outcome/treatment panels

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

When minimum wages rise high relative to normal local pay, do lower-skill workers keep their jobs, or does hiring fall at the margin?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. minimum-wage data gate failed; missing state/subnational outcome/treatment panels

why it matters

Labor-market rules often help some workers while risking job loss or slower hiring for others. This test looks for that tradeoff in observable employment or unemployment data.

how the test works

It compares 3 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a did callaway santanna design, with fixed effects for region and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Minimum wage bite ratio
What we checked
  • Teen employment to population ratio high bite
  • Low skill immigrant employment rate
  • Neet rate 15 24
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects
1007550250200020122024USAGBRDEU
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show teen_employment_to_population_ratio_high_bite across 3 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-04T20:29:26Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

High-bite minimum wages (statutory floors that approach or exceed the local 50th percentile of the age-specific wage distribution) produce a multi-stage causal chain. FIRST-ORDER: wage floors do rise for employed workers who retain their jobs — this effect is real, measurable and acknowledged. SECOND-ORDER: employment rates for teens, young immigrants, low-skill entrants, and workers in high-bite sub-regions diverge negatively from synthetic controls, with hours reductions, reduced promotion-probability, and tradable-sector job reallocation away from affected regions. THIRD-ORDER: the productivity ladder that moves workers from first-job wages to wages well above the minimum breaks down; informal-sector employment share rises; the share of young people neither in employment nor education (NEET) increases persistently, entrenching long-run human-capital damage. Cases: Seattle 2015-2017 above-$13 hike, NYC fast-food $15 minimum 2019, California state-wide $15-to-$16 schedule, UK National Living Wage 2016-2024 schedule, German Mindestlohn 2015 introduction and 2022 €12 hike.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Not supported if, across the five labelled cases: (a) the p10 wage FIRST-ORDER effect is positive and significant (confirming the acknowledged success) AND (b) at least 3 of 5 cases show no statistically meaningful teen-E/P divergence (>1.0pp below synthetic control at p<0.10) AND (c) no case shows the NEET third-order persistence. If FIRST-ORDER is confirmed but SECOND-ORDER and THIRD-ORDER effects are null across the majority of cases, the causal-chain claim is refuted even though the first-order mechanism is intact. The minimum-wage-employment literature places prior at a moderate level: bite ratio is the decisive moderator.

formal test & threshold
test:      staggered_did_five_case_causal_chain
threshold: FIRST-ORDER (p10 wage) supported at p<0.05 AND SECOND-ORDER (teen E/P) divergence >=1.0pp in at least 3/5 cases at p<0.10 AND THIRD-ORDER (NEET or informal share) divergence >=0.5pp in at least 2/5 cases at p<0.10

Method

Template
did_callaway_santanna
Fixed effects
region, year
Clustering
region
Sample
3 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Staggered Callaway-Sant'Anna DiD exploiting the timing variation in high-bite minimum-wage events (Seattle 2015, NYC FF 2019, CA $15 schedule 2017-2023, UK NLW 2016-2024 sub-schedule, DEU 2015 intro and 2022 €12 hike). Treated units are sub-regions where post-event bite ratio exceeds 0.50 of age-specific median. Donor pool is sub-regions with bite ratio remaining below 0.35 through the treatment window. Synthetic control as robustness per treated case.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
teen_employment_to_population_ratio_high_bite
outcome
bls:LAUtier 1
destatis:mikrozensustier 1
level_pct
low_skill_immigrant_employment_rate
outcome
bls:CPStier 1
ons:APS (UK)tier 1
destatis:mikrozensustier 1
level_pct
neet_rate_15_24
outcome
oecd:NEETtier 2
level_pct
informal_sector_employment_share
outcome
ilo:ILOSTATtier 2
level_pct
wage_at_10th_percentile
outcome
bls:OEWStier 1
ons:ASHEtier 1
destatis:VSEtier 1
log_real_hourly
minimum_wage_bite_ratio
treatment
constructed:statutory minimum / median wage in same region and age-group; inputs from bls:OEWS, ons:ASHE, destatis:VSEtier 5
ratio
regional_gdp_growth
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
yoy_pct_change
adult_unemployment_rate
control
bls:LAUST010000000000003tier 1
level_pct
sector_composition_share_tradable
control
bls:QCEWtier 1
ons:BREStier 1
destatis:erwerbstaetigetier 1
share

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — minimum_wage_above_median_employment_teen_effects

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — minimum-wage data gate failed; missing state/subnational outcome/treatment panels

Pre-registration

  • Claim: High-bite minimum wages (statutory floors that approach or exceed the local 50th percentile of the age-specific wage distribution) produce a multi-stage causal chain. FIRST-ORDER: wage floors do rise for employed workers who retain their jobs — this effect is real, measurable and acknowledged. SECOND-ORDER: employment rates for teens, young immigrants, low-skill entrants, and workers in high-bite sub-regions diverge negatively from synthetic controls, with hours reductions, reduced promotion-probability, and tradable-sector job reallocation away from affected regions. THIRD-ORDER: the productivity ladder that moves workers from first-job wages to wages well above the minimum breaks down; informal-sector employment share rises; the share of young people neither in employment nor education (NEET) increases persistently, entrenching long-run human-capital damage. Cases: Seattle 2015-2017 above-$13 hike, NYC fast-food $15 minimum 2019, California state-wide $15-to-$16 schedule, UK National Living Wage 2016-2024 schedule, German Mindestlohn 2015 introduction and 2022 €12 hike.
  • Falsification rule: Not supported if, across the five labelled cases: (a) the p10 wage FIRST-ORDER effect is positive and significant (confirming the acknowledged success) AND (b) at least 3 of 5 cases show no statistically meaningful teen-E/P divergence (>1.0pp below synthetic control at p<0.10) AND (c) no case shows the NEET third-order persistence. If FIRST-ORDER is confirmed but SECOND-ORDER and THIRD-ORDER effects are null across the majority of cases, the causal-chain claim is refuted even though the first-order mechanism is intact. The minimum-wage-employment literature places prior at a moderate level: bite ratio is the decisive moderator.

Estimate (Callaway-Sant'Anna staggered DiD, TWFE approximation)

  • Error: minimum-wage data gate failed; missing state/subnational outcome/treatment panels

Variables resolved

Missing data

  • bls:LAU_state_teen_employment_population_ratio_panel (outcome)
  • bls:OEWS_state_p10_hourly_wage_panel (outcome)
  • derived:minimum_wage_bite_ratio_subnational_panel (treatment)

Data repair note

  • The preregistered minimum-wage design is state/subnational; national or single-state exemplar series are not compatible evidence.
  • Required: bls:LAU_state_teen_employment_population_ratio_panel — US state/city teen employment-to-population panel for high-bite cases, keyed by subnational unit and year.
  • Required: bls:OEWS_state_p10_hourly_wage_panel — BLS OEWS state p10 hourly wage panel, paired with median wages so the first-order wage effect and bite ratio can be tested honestly.
  • Required: derived:minimum_wage_bite_ratio_subnational_panel — Constructed statutory minimum / local age-specific median wage panel for Seattle, NYC fast-food, California, UK NLW regions, and German Mindestlohn cases.
  • Also needed for full verdict completeness: ons:ASHE_regional_p10_hourly_wage_panel and uk_low_pay_commission:NLW_history for UK regions.
  • Also needed for full verdict completeness: destatis:VSE_kreis_p10_hourly_wage_panel and destatis:german_minimum_wage_history for German Kreise.
  • Also needed for full verdict completeness: oecd:regional_neet_15_24_panel or national-statistical regional NEET panels for third-order persistence.
  • Also needed for full verdict completeness: Subnational sector composition and adult unemployment controls keyed to the same unit-year frame.
  • Not used as compatible evidence: world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD is only a national GDP control proxy; it cannot identify high-bite subregional treatment.
  • Not used as compatible evidence: The current BLS vintages are national LNS/CES/CUUR extracts and do not include LAU/OEWS/QCEW subnational panels.
  • Not used as compatible evidence: No ONS ASHE/APS/BRES or Destatis Mikrozensus/VSE subregional wage-employment vintages are on disk.
  • Runner limitation: The five-case high-bite design is subnational and multi-country. The runner needs unit_id-level panel support before these fetched sources can be estimated without collapsing the design to country-year aggregates.

Generated by scripts/run_did_callaway_santanna.py at 2026-05-04T20:29:26+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

The causal chain is the payload: the hypothesis is methodologically honest about the first-order success (p10 wages rise for the employed) and stakes falsifiability on second/third-order divergence. A clean first-order success with null second/third-order effects would refute the chain claim.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.