IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth

customs simplification and shorter border delays predict lower trade costs and faster small-exporter growth than tariff cuts alone.

REFUTEDengine/runs/ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth

REFUTED — coef=+0.007985 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0246

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.007985 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0246

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Applied tariff rate
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth
1007550250199020072024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDschool supportedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool supportedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:40Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

customs simplification and shorter border delays predict lower trade costs and faster small-exporter growth than tariff cuts alone.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Alias-batch panel fixed effects screen. The proxy source is explicitly local and runnable, but exact policy semantics should be upgraded before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
applied_tariff_rate
treatment
wits:weighted_mean_applied_tarifftier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.007985 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0246

Pre-registration

  • Claim: customs simplification and shorter border delays predict lower trade costs and faster small-exporter growth than tariff cuts alone.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_ml_customs_simplification_trade_cost_growth

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.007985
  • Std error: 0.00355
  • p-value: 0.0246
  • Observations: 2500, countries: 140
  • Within R²: 0.0126
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • wits:weighted_mean_applied_tariff → applied_tariff_rate (treatment, publisher=wits, n=3806)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_A_market_liberal.md. Backlog source families: World Bank Doing Business historical, Logistics Performance Index, ESCAP-World Bank trade costs, WITS, CEPII gravity.. Alias proxy used: wits:weighted_mean_applied_tariff -> world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.