IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag

directed-credit intensity predicts lower marginal product of capital and slower total factor productivity growth than market-priced credit allocation.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag

SUPPORTED — coef=-0.001081 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00922

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=-0.001081 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00922

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Private credit income
What we checked
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag
1007550250199020072024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_index across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDschool refutedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool refutedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool refutedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:58Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

directed-credit intensity predicts lower marginal product of capital and slower total factor productivity growth than market-priced credit allocation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Alias-batch panel fixed effects screen. The proxy source is explicitly local and runnable, but exact policy semantics should be upgraded before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_growth
private_credit_gdp
treatment
world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZStier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=-0.001081 (sign matches claim -), p=0.00922

Pre-registration

  • Claim: directed-credit intensity predicts lower marginal product of capital and slower total factor productivity growth than market-priced credit allocation.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_ml_directed_credit_capital_misallocation_growth_drag

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.001081
  • Std error: 0.0004146
  • p-value: 0.00922
  • Observations: 1630, countries: 93
  • Within R²: -0.00778
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS → private_credit_gdp (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9562)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:58+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_A_market_liberal.md. Backlog source families: World Bank GFDD, IMF Financial Reform Database, PWT, WDI, Laeven-Valencia.. Alias proxy used: world_bank_wdi:FS.AST.PRVT.GD.ZS -> pwt:rtfpna. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.