IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol

fuel-subsidy reforms paired with targeted transfers produce stronger 5- to 15-year fiscal balances and social spending durability than unreformed universal subsidies.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol

SUPPORTED — coef=+2.769e-11 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0377

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether fossil fuel consumption subsidies is actually linked to better or worse poverty headcount from 1990 to 2024.

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+2.769e-11 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0377

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1990 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Fossil fuel consumption subsidies
What we checked
  • Poverty headcount
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol
1007550250199020072024GLOBAL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show poverty_headcount across 1 sampled countries over 1990–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDschool refutedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool refutedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool refutedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool refutedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool refutedSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:08Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

fuel-subsidy reforms paired with targeted transfers produce stronger 5- to 15-year fiscal balances and social spending durability than unreformed universal subsidies.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1990 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Alias-batch panel fixed effects screen. The proxy source is explicitly local and runnable, but exact policy semantics should be upgraded before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
poverty_headcount
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAYtier 2
level
fossil_fuel_consumption_subsidies
treatment
owid:consumption-subsidies-for-fossil-fuelstier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+2.769e-11 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0377

Pre-registration

  • Claim: fuel-subsidy reforms paired with targeted transfers produce stronger 5- to 15-year fiscal balances and social spending durability than unreformed universal subsidies.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered + sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_ml_fuel_subsidy_reform_targeted_transfer_qol

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +2.769e-11
  • Std error: 1.324e-11
  • p-value: 0.0377
  • Observations: 250, countries: 29
  • Within R²: 0.492
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY → poverty_headcount (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=2862)
  • owid:consumption-subsidies-for-fossil-fuels → fossil_fuel_consumption_subsidies (treatment, publisher=owid, n=686)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:08+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_A_market_liberal.md. Backlog source families: IMF subsidy reform database, WDI, IMF GFS, ASPIRE social protection, CPI.. Alias proxy used: owid:consumption-subsidies-for-fossil-fuels -> world_bank_wdi:SI.POV.DDAY. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.