IESET.
Hypotheses·regulatory·oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel

In OECD and accession-country panels 1998-2019, reductions in the OECD PMR overall product-market-regulation index predict higher subsequent TFP growth.

The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in PMR predicts at least 0.2 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the following 5-year window, controlling for initial TFP level, R&D intensity, and human capital.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'oecd_pmr_overall_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether rich-country pmr overall index is actually linked to better or worse productivity growth annual from 1998 to 2019.

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'oecd_pmr_overall_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

This matters because regulatory claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 35 country or place units from 1998 to 2019, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Rich-country pmr overall index
  • Rich-country pmr barriers to entry
What we checked
  • Productivity growth annual
  • Labour productivity growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel
1007550250199820092019USAGBRDEUFRAITAESPNLD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show tfp_growth_annual across 35 sampled countries over 1998–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:54:33Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

In OECD and accession-country panels 1998-2019, reductions in the OECD PMR overall product-market-regulation index predict higher subsequent TFP growth. The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in PMR predicts at least 0.2 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the following 5-year window, controlling for initial TFP level, R&D intensity, and human capital.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if β1 (PMR, inverted) is positive and significant at p<0.05 for both TFP growth and labour productivity growth. PARTIAL if positive and significant for TFP but not labour productivity. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant at p<0.05. INFORMATIVE: the result should survive excluding the UK and New Zealand (dominant deregulation cases); if not, it is a two-country story.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_pmr_deregulation_tfp_oecd
threshold: β_PMR_inverted (TFP growth) > 0 at p<=0.05  AND β_PMR_inverted (labour productivity) > 0 at p<=0.05  AND Ex-UK-NZ robustness retains positive sign.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
35 countries · 1998 – 2019
Evidence type
associational

Two-way FE panel with 5-year forward growth windows to reduce reverse-causality: TFP_growth(t+1 to t+5) = β0 + β1*PMR(t) + controls + FE. Robustness: (1) use 1-year lags instead of 5-year windows; (2) exclude the 2008-2009 crisis period; (3) use PMR sub-components (barriers to entry, state control, barriers to trade) separately; (4) subsample by initial income level.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
tfp_growth_annual
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log_diff_annual
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_per_emptier 3
log_diff_annual
oecd_pmr_overall_index
treatment
oecd_pmr:PMRtier 4
level
oecd_pmr_barriers_to_entry
treatment
oecd_pmr:PMRtier 4
level
log_initial_tfp
control
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
log
rd_expenditure_gdp
control
oecd:DSD_PDBtier 2
level
human_capital_index
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_per_capita
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — oecd_product_market_deregulation_tfp_panel

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'oecd_pmr_overall_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: In OECD and accession-country panels 1998-2019, reductions in the OECD PMR overall product-market-regulation index predict higher subsequent TFP growth. The directional claim is that a one-standard-deviation reduction in PMR predicts at least 0.2 percentage points higher annual TFP growth over the following 5-year window, controlling for initial TFP level, R&D intensity, and human capital.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if β1 (PMR, inverted) is positive and significant at p<0.05 for both TFP growth and labour productivity growth. PARTIAL if positive and significant for TFP but not labour productivity. REFUTED if β1 is negative and significant at p<0.05. INFORMATIVE: the result should survive excluding the UK and New Zealand (dominant deregulation cases); if not, it is a two-country story.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_pmr_deregulation_tfp_oecd

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'oecd_pmr_overall_index' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_growth_annual (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • pwt:rgdpo_per_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • oecd_pmr:PMR@DF_PMR_1.2 → oecd_pmr_overall_index (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • oecd_pmr:PMR@DF_PMR_1.2 → oecd_pmr_barriers_to_entry (treatment, publisher=oecd_pmr, n=105)
  • pwt:rtfpna → log_initial_tfp (controls, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • oecd:DSD_PDB → rd_expenditure_gdp (controls, publisher=oecd, n=2269)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital_index (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:54:33+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.