IESET.
Hypotheses·fiscal·progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd

Increases in top marginal income-tax rates lower top-income concentration without reducing medium-run GDP per capita growth or private investment more than matched lower-tax countries.

REFUTEDengine/runs/progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd

REFUTED — coef=+0.04831 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0187

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=+0.04831 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0187

why it matters

This matters because fiscal claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Top marginal income tax rate
What we checked
  • Investment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd
1007550250198020022024OECD
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show investment_share across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

17 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedDegrowth / Ecological Macroeconomicswins if REFUTEDschool supportedDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEco-Socialism / Red-Greenwins if REFUTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarket Socialism (Lange-Lerner tradition)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxian Political Economywins if REFUTEDschool supportedMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDschool supportedModern Monetary Theorywins if REFUTEDschool supportedNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit dcd2199 · 2026-05-22T22:28:02Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:30Z

Increases in top marginal income-tax rates lower top-income concentration without reducing medium-run GDP per capita growth or private investment more than matched lower-tax countries.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

First-pass panel fixed effects screen. Multi-outcome or threshold language from the source backlog should be upgraded to a bespoke replication before scoreboard conversion.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
investment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
top_marginal_income_tax_rate
treatment
owid:top-marginal-income-tax-ratetier 2
level_lagged_one_year
log_gdp_pc
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
government_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=+0.04831 (sign opposite claim -), p=0.0187

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Increases in top marginal income-tax rates lower top-income concentration without reducing medium-run GDP per capita growth or private investment more than matched lower-tax countries.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if the primary treatment coefficient has the pre-registered - sign at p<=0.10 with minimum sample gates. REFUTED if the coefficient has the opposite sign at p<=0.10. Otherwise PARTIAL; missing data or failed sample gates are INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_progressive_tax_top_income_share_and_growth_oecd

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.04831
  • Std error: 0.0195
  • p-value: 0.0187
  • Observations: 57, countries: 3
  • Within R²: -0.258
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → investment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • owid:top-marginal-income-tax-rate → top_marginal_income_tax_rate (treatment, publisher=owid, n=590)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_gdp_pc (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → government_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:30+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Source shard: engine/audits/swarm_2026-05-22_200_hypotheses_worker_B_left_intervention.md. Backlog source families: OWID top tax and top-income shares, WDI, PWT.. Initial promotion pass left scoreboard mapping empty; mapped by the 2026-05-22 swarm scoreboard conversion v1.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.