IESET.
Hypotheses·institutional quality·property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2

In a 1996-2018 Maddison/WGI cross-section, countries with stronger rule of law should show higher mean annual GDP-per-capita growth after controlling for initial income if the property-rights growth channel is strong in between-country variation.

PARTIALengine/runs/property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2

partial

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. partial

why it matters

This matters because institutional quality claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 22 country or place units from 1996 to 2018, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Mean rule of law
What we checked
  • Mean annual income pc growth
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2
1007550250199620072018USAGBRCANAUSNZLDEUFRA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show mean_annual_gdp_pc_growth across 22 sampled countries over 1996–2018.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 4467b9f · 2026-05-02T22:38:16Z

In a 1996-2018 Maddison/WGI cross-section, countries with stronger rule of law should show higher mean annual GDP-per-capita growth after controlling for initial income if the property-rights growth channel is strong in between-country variation.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if the coefficient on mean Rule of Law is positive and statistically significant at p<0.10 after controlling for initial GDP per capita. REFUTED if the coefficient is negative and significant. Otherwise PARTIAL.

formal test & threshold
test:      maddison_wgi_rule_of_law_cross_section_1996_2018
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
22 countries · 1996 – 2018
Evidence type
associational

Bespoke HC3 OLS cross-section in `engine/runs/property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2/replication.py`.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
mean_annual_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
mean_annual_log_growth_1996_2018
mean_rule_of_law
treatment
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
country_mean_1996_2018
log_initial_gdp_pc
control
maddison:rgdpnapctier 3
log_level_1996

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — property_rights_long_run_income_frontier_v2

Verdict: partial — Cross-section β_RL=-0.0028 (SE 0.0043, p=0.506, n=165), R²=0.016.

Design

Cross-section of 165 countries, 1996-2018. Outcome: mean annual log GDP-per-capita growth (Maddison). Treatment: mean WGI Rule of Law. Control: log initial GDP per capita. Estimator: OLS with HC3 SEs.

Methodology Note

This is a v2 robustness check for property_rights_long_run_income_frontier. v1 used TWFE panel with 5-year-forward growth and found PARTIAL (β=+0.0048, p=0.277). v2 uses a country-mean cross-section to test whether the panel result is driven by within-country vs between-country variation.

Metrics

| Metric | Value | |---|---| | Countries | 165 | | β_RL | -0.0028 | | SE | 0.0043 | | 95% CI | [-0.0112, +0.0055] | | p-value | 0.506 | | R² | 0.016 |

Interpretation

See v1 result card for primary interpretation. This v2 tests whether the partial TWFE panel result reflects weak between-country association.

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.