IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature

Infant-industry protection that persists longer than 15 years predicts lower export competitiveness and weaker productivity growth than time-limited protection in a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'infant_industry_protection_duration' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'infant_industry_protection_duration' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 62 country or place units from 1960 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and sector and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Infant industry protection duration
  • Protection duration gt 15
What we checked
  • Export competitiveness index
  • Labour productivity growth
  • Sectoral export share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature
1007550250196019902020ARGBRACHLMEXURYCOLPER
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show export_competitiveness_index across 62 sampled countries over 1960–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:00Z

Infant-industry protection that persists longer than 15 years predicts lower export competitiveness and weaker productivity growth than time-limited protection in a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if infant-industry protection lasting longer than 15 years does not show statistically lower export competitiveness and productivity growth than time-limited protection (3-10 years) after controlling for initial income, human capital, and market size.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_protection_duration_on_competitiveness
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, sector, year
Clustering
country_sector
Sample
62 countries · 1960 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Country-sector panel FE with fixed effects and robustness via matching on initial sectoral productivity and country income level.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
export_competitiveness_index
outcome
constructed:revealed_comparative_advantage_and_export_market_sharetier 5
level
labour_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rgdpo_emptier 3
annual_pct
sectoral_export_share
outcome
un_comtrade:export_value_by_sectortier 2
level_pct
infant_industry_protection_duration
treatment
constructed:years_since_protection_impositiontier 5
continuous
protection_duration_gt_15
treatment
constructed:binarytier 5
binary
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
human_capital
control
owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870tier 2
level
market_size
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.CDtier 2
log_level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — protected_infant_industries_fail_to_mature

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'infant_industry_protection_duration' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Infant-industry protection that persists longer than 15 years predicts lower export competitiveness and weaker productivity growth than time-limited protection in a broad panel of developing economies during 1960-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if infant-industry protection lasting longer than 15 years does not show statistically lower export competitiveness and productivity growth than time-limited protection (3-10 years) after controlling for initial income, human capital, and market size.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_protection_duration_on_competitiveness

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'infant_industry_protection_duration' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • pwt:rgdpo_emp → labour_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=9529)
  • constructed:years_since_protection_imposition → infant_industry_protection_duration (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=3782)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)

Variables missing data

  • constructed:revealed_comparative_advantage_and_export_market_share (outcome, name=export_competitiveness_index) — vintage not on disk
  • un_comtrade:export_value_by_sector (outcome, name=sectoral_export_share) — vintage not on disk
  • constructed:binary (treatment, name=protection_duration_gt_15) — vintage not on disk
  • owid:mean-years-of-schooling-long-run-1870 (controls, name=human_capital) — vintage not on disk
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.CD (controls, name=market_size) — vintage not on disk

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:00+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Protection duration data from TRAINS, WTO notifications, and national tariff schedules. Sectoral export data from UN Comtrade and UNCTAD.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.