IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap

Resource-funded developmentalist states produce early public-investment gains but weaker long-run economic diversification and lower TFP growth than market-open resource peers over 30-year windows in a broad panel of resource-rich economies during 1970-2020.

PARTIALengine/runs/resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap

PARTIAL — coef=-0.008094, p=0.758 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.008094, p=0.758 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 75 country or place units from 1970 to 2020, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Resource developmentalism
  • Resource rents
What we checked
  • Export diversification index
  • Total factor productivity growth
  • Manufacturing va share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

11 input datasets, 3 unresolved missing series, provenance status: incomplete.

Results

engine/runs/resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap
1007550250197019952020ZAFNGAEGYETHKENGHATZA
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show export_diversification_index across 75 sampled countries over 1970–2020.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Resource-funded developmentalist states produce early public-investment gains but weaker long-run economic diversification and lower TFP growth than market-open resource peers over 30-year windows in a broad panel of resource-rich economies during 1970-2020.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Falsified if resource-funded developmentalist states do not show statistically weaker export diversification and TFP growth than market-open resource peers over 30-year windows after controlling for resource rents, initial income, and institutional quality.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_resource_developmentalism_vs_market_open
threshold: [object Object]

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
75 countries · 1970 – 2020
Evidence type
causal

Panel FE comparing resource-funded developmentalist states with market-open resource peers. Robustness via synthetic control and propensity-score matching.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
export_diversification_index
outcome
constructed:theil_index_or_hirschman_herfindahl_of_exportstier 5
level
total_factor_productivity_growth
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
annual_pct
manufacturing_va_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level_pct
resource_developmentalism
treatment
movements:resource_developmentalismtier 5
binary
resource_rents
treatment
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZStier 2
level_pct
resource_rents
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZStier 2
level_pct
initial_gdp_per_capita
control
maddison:mpd2020tier 3
log_level
institutional_quality
control
wgi:RL.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — resource_developmentalism_rent_seeking_trap

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.008094, p=0.758 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Resource-funded developmentalist states produce early public-investment gains but weaker long-run economic diversification and lower TFP growth than market-open resource peers over 30-year windows in a broad panel of resource-rich economies during 1970-2020.
  • Falsification rule: Falsified if resource-funded developmentalist states do not show statistically weaker export diversification and TFP growth than market-open resource peers over 30-year windows after controlling for resource rents, initial income, and institutional quality.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_resource_developmentalism_vs_market_open

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.008094
  • Std error: 0.0263
  • p-value: 0.758
  • Observations: 1320, countries: 73
  • Within R²: 0.0258
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • constructed:theil_index_or_hirschman_herfindahl_of_exports → export_diversification_index (outcome, publisher=derived, n=9623)
  • pwt:rtfpna → total_factor_productivity_growth (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_va_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=9698)
  • movements:resource_developmentalism → resource_developmentalism (treatment, publisher=movements, n=61744)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS → resource_rents (treatment, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11504)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.TOTL.RT.ZS → resource_rents (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=11504)
  • maddison:mpd2020 → initial_gdp_per_capita (controls, publisher=maddison, n=19706)
  • wgi:RL.EST → institutional_quality (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5296)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Export diversification indices from UNCTAD, IMF, or constructed from UN Comtrade. Resource developmentalism coding requires manual policy classification.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.