IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024

The Philippines' business-process-outsourcing (BPO) sector — built through PEZA tax incentives, English-language workforce, and a 2005- onwards explicit industrial-policy push — produced a measurable services-led structural shift, with services value-added share of GDP rising by at least +5 percentage points 2005-2019 and per-capita GDP growth differential vs the ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, THA, VNM) averaging at least +0.3pp/yr over 2005-2019.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024

SUPPORTED — coef=+0.9989 (sign matches claim +), p=4e-11

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. coef=+0.9989 (sign matches claim +), p=4e-11

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 2000 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2005 bpo indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Services value added pct income
  • Log income pc cost-of-living adjusted
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024
1007550250200020122024PHLIDNMYSTHAVNM
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 5 sampled countries over 2000–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Structuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedSocial Democraticwins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Philippines' business-process-outsourcing (BPO) sector — built through PEZA tax incentives, English-language workforce, and a 2005- onwards explicit industrial-policy push — produced a measurable services-led structural shift, with services value-added share of GDP rising by at least +5 percentage points 2005-2019 and per-capita GDP growth differential vs the ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, THA, VNM) averaging at least +0.3pp/yr over 2005-2019.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) services value-added share for PHL rises by at least +5pp from 2005 to 2019; AND (2) PHL real GDP-pc growth minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, THA, VNM) over 2005-2019 averages at least +0.3pp/yr. REFUTED if EITHER fails.

formal test & threshold
test:      philippines_bpo_services_share_growth_differential_2005_2019
threshold: PRIMARY 1: services_va_pct_gdp(PHL, 2019) - services_va_pct_gdp(PHL, 2005) >= 5. PRIMARY 2: gdp_pc_growth(PHL, 2005-2019 mean) - gdp_pc_growth(ASEAN5, 2005-2019 mean) >= 0.003. METHOD_VALID: WDI NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS and NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG for PHL and ASEAN-5 across 2005-2019.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
5 countries · 2000 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects panel with ASEAN-5 peer pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
services_value_added_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
post_2005_bpo_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for PHL, year >= 2005tier 5
indicator
gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sea_philippines_bpo_industrial_policy_2005_2024

Verdict: SUPPORTED — coef=+0.9989 (sign matches claim +), p=4e-11

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Philippines' business-process-outsourcing (BPO) sector — built through PEZA tax incentives, English-language workforce, and a 2005- onwards explicit industrial-policy push — produced a measurable services-led structural shift, with services value-added share of GDP rising by at least +5 percentage points 2005-2019 and per-capita GDP growth differential vs the ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, THA, VNM) averaging at least +0.3pp/yr over 2005-2019.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) services value-added share for PHL rises by at least +5pp from 2005 to 2019; AND (2) PHL real GDP-pc growth minus ASEAN-5 peer mean (IDN, MYS, THA, VNM) over 2005-2019 averages at least +0.3pp/yr. REFUTED if EITHER fails.
  • Falsification test: philippines_bpo_services_share_growth_differential_2005_2019

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): +0.9989
  • Std error: 0.1155
  • p-value: 4e-11
  • Observations: 75, countries: 3
  • Within R²: -1.4
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_value_added_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for PHL, year >= 2005 → post_2005_bpo_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=125)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.GDI.TOTL.ZS → gross_capital_formation_pct_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10428)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14447)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests services-led growth model versus the manufacturing-export model of regional peers. Services share is the structural-shift test; growth differential is the output test.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.