IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014

Singapore's post-2014 FTA expansion — covering CECA upgrade with India (in-force 2005, modernised post-2014), CPTPP 2018, RCEP 2022 — sustained the export-share-of-GDP and trade-openness ratios at the world's highest levels, with exports of goods and services / GDP averaging at least 170% over 2015-2019 (vs 100-130% for global peers like NLD, BEL, IRL), and Singapore's real GDP-pc growth maintaining at least +0.3pp/yr differential vs the high-income East Asian peer panel (KOR, JPN, HKG) over 2014-2019.

REFUTEDengine/runs/sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014

REFUTED — coef=-1.46 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00114

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. coef=-1.46 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00114

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 4 country or place units from 2010 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2014 fta cascade indicator
What we checked
  • Real income pc growth
  • Exports pct income
  • Trade pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014
1007550250201020172024SGPKORJPNHKG
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc_growth across 4 sampled countries over 2010–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

3 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Classical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:01Z

Singapore's post-2014 FTA expansion — covering CECA upgrade with India (in-force 2005, modernised post-2014), CPTPP 2018, RCEP 2022 — sustained the export-share-of-GDP and trade-openness ratios at the world's highest levels, with exports of goods and services / GDP averaging at least 170% over 2015-2019 (vs 100-130% for global peers like NLD, BEL, IRL), and Singapore's real GDP-pc growth maintaining at least +0.3pp/yr differential vs the high-income East Asian peer panel (KOR, JPN, HKG) over 2014-2019.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) Singapore's exports/GDP averages at least 170% over 2015-2019; AND (2) SGP real GDP-pc growth minus high-income East Asian peer mean (KOR, JPN, HKG) over 2014-2019 is at least +0.003. REFUTED if EITHER fails.

formal test & threshold
test:      singapore_post_2014_trade_openness_growth_premium
threshold: PRIMARY 1: exports_pct_gdp(SGP, 2015-2019 mean) >= 170. PRIMARY 2: gdp_pc_growth(SGP, 2014-2019 mean) - gdp_pc_growth([KOR,JPN,HKG], 2014-2019 mean) >= 0.003. METHOD_VALID: WDI NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS and NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG for SGP and high-income East Asia peers across 2014-2019.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
4 countries · 2010 – 2024
Evidence type
associational

Two-way fixed effects panel with high-income East Asia peer pool.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc_growth
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZGtier 2
level
exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
log_gdp_pc_ppp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KDtier 2
log
post_2014_fta_cascade_indicator
treatment
constructed:indicator = 1 for SGP, year >= 2014tier 5
indicator

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — sea_singapore_fta_cascade_post_2014

Verdict: REFUTED — coef=-1.46 (sign opposite claim +), p=0.00114

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Singapore's post-2014 FTA expansion — covering CECA upgrade with India (in-force 2005, modernised post-2014), CPTPP 2018, RCEP 2022 — sustained the export-share-of-GDP and trade-openness ratios at the world's highest levels, with exports of goods and services / GDP averaging at least 170% over 2015-2019 (vs 100-130% for global peers like NLD, BEL, IRL), and Singapore's real GDP-pc growth maintaining at least +0.3pp/yr differential vs the high-income East Asian peer panel (KOR, JPN, HKG) over 2014-2019.
  • Falsification rule: PRIMARY (dispositive, BOTH for SUPPORTED): (1) Singapore's exports/GDP averages at least 170% over 2015-2019; AND (2) SGP real GDP-pc growth minus high-income East Asian peer mean (KOR, JPN, HKG) over 2014-2019 is at least +0.003. REFUTED if EITHER fails.
  • Falsification test: singapore_post_2014_trade_openness_growth_premium

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -1.46
  • Std error: 0.4175
  • p-value: 0.00114
  • Observations: 60, countries: 4
  • Within R²: 0.0362
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD.ZG → real_gdp_pc_growth (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=13897)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.KD → log_gdp_pc_ppp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8325)
  • constructed: indicator = 1 for SGP, year >= 2014 → post_2014_fta_cascade_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=60)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:01+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Notes

Tests Singapore's hyper-open trade model continuation post-2014. Trade openness threshold of 170% is calibrated to detect maintenance of frontier-trader status; growth differential vs Korea/Japan/HK benchmarks against high-income East Asian comparators.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.