IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response

India's 1991 tariff-liberalisation component (mean weighted applied tariff fell from ~80% in 1990 to ~30% by 1997 and ~13% by 2007) raised Indian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and trade- openness over the 1992-2007 window in a structural-break pattern.

This spec is the trade-share companion to india_1991_liberalisation_growth_acceleration; it tests the trade-channel mechanism rather than the headline GDP outcome.

SUPPORTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response

SUPPORTED — trade openness rose +14.7pp, clearing the +10pp gate

confidence cueThis is a clear pass for the claim as written. It still applies only to this sample, period, and method.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data clearly moved in the predicted direction. trade openness rose +14.7pp, clearing the +10pp gate

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 1 country or place units from 1980 to 2019, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Merchandise exports pct income
  • Trade openness pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response
1007550250198020002019IND
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show merchandise_exports_pct_gdp across 1 sampled countries over 1980–2019.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

4 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if SUPPORTEDschool supportedEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDschool supported

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:47Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

India's 1991 tariff-liberalisation component (mean weighted applied tariff fell from ~80% in 1990 to ~30% by 1997 and ~13% by 2007) raised Indian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and trade- openness over the 1992-2007 window in a structural-break pattern. This spec is the trade-share companion to india_1991_liberalisation_growth_acceleration; it tests the trade-channel mechanism rather than the headline GDP outcome.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if mean trade-openness 1992-2007 minus mean trade- openness 1980-1990 exceeds +10 percentage points. REFUTED if less than +5 pp.

formal test & threshold
test:      india_pre_post_1991_trade_openness_break
threshold: PRIMARY: mean_openness(1992-2007) - mean_openness(1980-1990) >= 10 pp. INFORMATIVE: extending post-window to 2019 yields a similar or larger gap.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
1 countries · 1980 – 2019
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive structural-break test. Pre-1991 (1980-1990) vs post-1991 (1992-2007 narrow; 1992-2019 wide) mean trade- openness comparison. Visualise as kinked trend line.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_india_1991_tariff_cut_export_response

Verdict: SUPPORTED — trade openness rose +14.7pp, clearing the +10pp gate

Pre-registration

  • Claim: India's 1991 tariff-liberalisation component (mean weighted applied tariff fell from ~80% in 1990 to ~30% by 1997 and ~13% by 2007) raised Indian merchandise-exports-to-GDP and trade- openness over the 1992-2007 window in a structural-break pattern. This spec is the trade-share companion to india_1991_liberalisation_growth_acceleration; it tests the trade-channel mechanism rather than the headline GDP outcome.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if mean trade-openness 1992-2007 minus mean trade- openness 1980-1990 exceeds +10 percentage points. REFUTED if less than +5 pp.
  • Falsification test: india_pre_post_1991_trade_openness_break

Comparison

  • shape: registered_trade_window_delta
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: IND
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'IND', 'pre': {'country': 'IND', 'window': [1980, 1990], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 13.96242773064072, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1980, 'year_max': 1990}, 'post': {'country': 'IND', 'window': [1992, 2007], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 28.625355272377913, 'n_years': 16, 'year_min': 1992, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 14.662927541737194}
  • wide_post_window_delta: {'country': 'IND', 'pre': {'country': 'IND', 'window': [1980, 1990], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 13.96242773064072, 'n_years': 11, 'year_min': 1980, 'year_max': 1990}, 'post': {'country': 'IND', 'window': [1992, 2019], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 36.691291777510386, 'n_years': 28, 'year_min': 1992, 'year_max': 2019}, 'delta_pp': 22.728864046869667}
  • support_gate_delta_ge_10pp: True
  • refute_gate_delta_lt_5pp: False

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 80.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:47+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.