IESET.
Hypotheses·trade·trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000

The Mexico-EU Free Trade Agreement, effective 2000-07-01, raised Mexican bilateral exports to the EU and broader trade-openness modestly over the 2000-2007 pre-China-shock window.

The expected effect is small relative to NAFTA but detectable.

REFUTEDengine/runs/trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000

REFUTED — MEX openness change lagged comparators by 6.1pp

confidence cueThis test cuts against the claim as written or misses its pre-declared threshold.

policy briefNeeds review

In ordinary language

When countries open more of the economy to trade and competition, do people end up with better long-run income or productivity outcomes?

plain answer

The data did not support the prediction. MEX openness change lagged comparators by 6.1pp

why it matters

This matters because trade claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 5 country or place units from 1990 to 2007, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What we checked
  • Trade openness pct income
  • Merchandise exports pct income
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000
1007550250199019992007MEXBRAARGCHLCOL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show trade_openness_pct_gdp across 5 sampled countries over 1990–2007.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

2 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Chicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDschool refutedClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDschool refuted

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-16T13:42:51Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

The Mexico-EU Free Trade Agreement, effective 2000-07-01, raised Mexican bilateral exports to the EU and broader trade-openness modestly over the 2000-2007 pre-China-shock window. The expected effect is small relative to NAFTA but detectable.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED if Mexico trade-openness change 1995-1999 to 2003-2007 exceeds comparator change by >=2 pp. PARTIAL if smaller. REFUTED if negative.

formal test & threshold
test:      descriptive_mexico_eu_fta_2000_diversification
threshold: PRIMARY: (delta_openness(MEX) - delta_openness(comparator_mean)) >= +2 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
none
Sample
5 countries · 1990 – 2007
Evidence type
descriptive

Descriptive comparison. Mexican trade-openness 1995-1999 pre-treatment mean vs 2003-2007 post-treatment mean, vs Latin American comparator change over same windows.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
trade_openness_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
merchandise_exports_pct_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — trade_lib_mexico_eu_fta_2000

Verdict: REFUTED — MEX openness change lagged comparators by 6.1pp

Pre-registration

  • Claim: The Mexico-EU Free Trade Agreement, effective 2000-07-01, raised Mexican bilateral exports to the EU and broader trade-openness modestly over the 2000-2007 pre-China-shock window. The expected effect is small relative to NAFTA but detectable.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED if Mexico trade-openness change 1995-1999 to 2003-2007 exceeds comparator change by >=2 pp. PARTIAL if smaller. REFUTED if negative.
  • Falsification test: descriptive_mexico_eu_fta_2000_diversification

Comparison

  • shape: registered_mexico_eu_fta_differential_gate
  • source: world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS
  • publisher: world_bank_wdi
  • country: MEX
  • primary_delta: {'country': 'MEX', 'pre': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 46.79393290958966, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'MEX', 'window': [2003, 2007], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 52.6088644098513, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 2003, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 5.814931500261643}
  • peer_deltas: [{'country': 'BRA', 'pre': {'country': 'BRA', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 17.32340242860072, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'BRA', 'window': [2003, 2007], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 27.24794873417428, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 2003, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 9.92454630557356}, {'country': 'ARG', 'pre': {'country': 'ARG', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [2003], 'mean': 21.86936865507992, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'ARG', 'window': [2003, 2007], 'excluded_years': [2003], 'mean': 40.655641892514225, 'n_years': 4, 'year_min': 2004, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 18.786273237434305}, {'country': 'CHL', 'pre': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 54.24786400419693, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'CHL', 'window': [2003, 2007], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 71.66679472822501, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 2003, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 17.418930724028087}, {'country': 'COL', 'pre': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [1995, 1999], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 35.83932159209346, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 1995, 'year_max': 1999}, 'post': {'country': 'COL', 'window': [2003, 2007], 'excluded_years': [], 'mean': 37.308512200980815, 'n_years': 5, 'year_min': 2003, 'year_max': 2007}, 'delta_pp': 1.4691906088873523}]
  • peer_mean_delta_pp: 11.899735218980826
  • differential_change_pp: -6.084803718719183
  • support_gate_differential_ge_2pp: False
  • refute_gate_differential_negative: True

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS → merchandise_exports_pct_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10904)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-16T13:42:51+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.