IESET.
Movements·argentina_duhalde_pj_transition_2002_2003

Duhalde PJ transition — pesificación asymmetric devaluation, Jefes y Jefas

ARG·20022003·Partido Justicialista — Legislative-Assembly selection (no direct mandate)
Leaders: Eduardo Duhalde (President 2 Jan 2002 - 25 May 2003) · Jorge Remes Lenicov / Roberto Lavagna (Economía; Lavagna from April 2002) · Mario Blejer / Aldo Pignanelli / Alfonso Prat-Gay (BCRA)
positionspost_keynesiandevelopmentalismclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Heterodox asymmetric-devaluation + pesificación emergency government reconstructing price signals after corralito. Five doctrinal pillars: (a) Convertibility repeal — Ley 25.561 (Emergency and Exchange Regime) 6 January 2002 abandoned Convertibility Law 23.928; dual-exchange-rate regime then unified float from February; peso depreciated $1 → $3.85 by June. (b) Asymmetric pesificación — Decreto 214/2002 (3 Feb 2002) converted USD-denominated bank deposits at $1.40/dollar while loans at $1:1; state absorbed ~$13B cost; bank balance-sheet recapitalisation via compensation BODEN bonds. (c) Plan Jefes y Jefas de Hogar Desocupados (Decreto 565/2002, 3 April 2002) — $150/month workfare to unemployed household heads; coverage ~2M beneficiaries by 2003; first mass cash-transfer programme. (d) Lavagna-Blejer turnaround — April 2002 Lavagna replaced Remes Lenicov; floating peso stabilised ~ $3; inflation peaked 41% (2002); GDP contracted 10.9% (2002) then rebounded 8.8% (2003). (e) Default continuation + Kirchner handoff — 26-27 June 2002 Puente Pueyrredón killings (Kosteki, Santillán) advanced elections; 27 April 2003 first round Menem 24.5%, Kirchner 22.2%; Menem withdrew before runoff; Kirchner assumed 25 May 2003 with 22.2% mandate. Stated school: Peronist heterodox + developmentalist + emergency statist. Left- right: centre-left on transfers, statist on banking, pragmatic. Popularity: no direct election; approval grew from ~20% early to ~50% by mid-2002 as recovery began. Coherence: trade convertibility + bank-deposit contract integrity for asymmetric-pesificación recovery impulse, mass workfare floor, and stabilised-float currency regime that Kirchner inherited.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
decreased · moderate
lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)
Currency board repealed; BCRA re-politicised under rotating heads.
property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
decreased · strong
weaker property rights
Pesificación asymmetric broke USD-deposit contracts; forced debt conversion.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
Jefes y Jefas covered ~2M household heads; largest Argentine transfer to date.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
unchanged · weak
Export retenciones reintroduced; Mercosur continuity.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
asymmetric_pesification_recovery_effect
not yet written
workfare_stabilisation_effect

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

References

Notes

Legislative-Assembly selection after 20-Dec-2001 collapse; bridges to Kirchner 2003.