Self-described "Andean-Amazonian capitalism" and "communitarian socialism": nationalisation of hydrocarbons via Supreme Decree 28701 of May 2006, which raised the state's share of gas revenues sharply and brought YPFB into a majority-ownership position in upstream contracts; re-founding of the state in the 2009 Plurinational Constitution recognising indigenous autonomy; expansion of cash-transfer programmes (Bono Juancito Pinto 2006, Renta Dignidad 2008, Bono Juana Azurduy 2009); real minimum-wage increases; and large public investment in roads, gas infrastructure, and state-led industrialisation attempts in lithium, urea, and iron. Macroeconomic management was, in contrast, relatively orthodox by regional left-populist standards: a managed currency peg, fiscal surpluses through 2013, and reserve accumulation from the gas boom. After the 2014-2015 commodity-price decline deficits widened, reserves drew down, and the model became increasingly dependent on financing the peg. Term-limit controversy after the 2016 referendum and disputed 2019 election ended the period. Framework records both the material gains — poverty headcount roughly halved, strong growth — and the later vulnerabilities of a peg-plus-deficit configuration after the commodity cycle turned.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · strong
larger transfer footprint
New universal old-age transfer Renta Dignidad; school and maternal conditional transfers.
Constitución Política del Estado Plurinacional de Bolivia (2009)
Weisbrot et al. (2009), Bolivia: The Economy During the Morales Administration, CEPR
IMF Article IV Bolivia 2015, 2018
Arce (2015), El Modelo Económico Social Comunitario Productivo
Notes
Distinguishable from Venezuelan Chavismo in that macroeconomic orthodoxy (peg credibility, reserve accumulation, fiscal surpluses through 2013) was maintained for most of the period. The peg-plus- deficit vulnerability after 2014 is the stress test the framework should pick up in post-2019 outcomes.