Bolsonaro government — right-populist with liberal economic team (Brazil)

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Right-populist government pairing culture-war / law-and-order / anti-establishment framing with a Chicago-trained liberal-orthodox economic team under Paulo Guedes ("super-ministry" merging Finance, Planning, and Industry). Core economic output: (i) pension reform (Emenda Constitucional 103, Nov 2019) raising minimum retirement ages (62 women / 65 men) with long transition — largest entitlement cut in Brazilian history by projected fiscal savings (~R$800bn over 10y); (ii) central-bank independence statute (Lei Complementar 179/2021, 24 Feb 2021) granting the BCB fixed-term mandates de-synchronised from presidential cycles; (iii) Eletrobras privatisation (Lei 14182/2021, capital-increase executed Jun 2022) diluting federal stake to ~45%; (iv) emergency COVID cash transfer (Auxílio Emergencial, Apr 2020) at R$600/month reaching ~68m recipients — the largest expansion of Brazilian cash transfer in absolute and per-capita terms; (v) Auxílio Brasil (Dec 2021) replacing Bolsa Família with higher floor but conditionality weakened; (vi) auto and white-goods IPI cuts (2020, 2022) and fuel tax cuts ahead of 2022 election; (vii) regulatory retrenchment on Amazon enforcement — IBAMA/ICMBio budgets cut, deforestation rose ~60% vs 2018 baseline (PRODES). COVID response was characterised by executive minimisation (presidential opposition to lockdowns and later to vaccination rollout) while subnational governors ran containment; the federal government did pass one of the world's largest emergency-transfer programmes in parallel. Popularity: 55.1% second round 2018, ~30-40% approval band through term, 49.1% second-round 2022 (lost to Lula 50.9%). Câmara seat share — PL became the largest party in 2022 (99 seats) despite losing the presidency, evidencing down-ballot bolsonarismo durability. Coherence line: economic team orthodoxy sat in genuine tension with populist election-year fiscal loosening (2022 IPI/fuel cuts, Auxílio Brasil floor raise, PEC Kamikaze) and with environmental/institutional deregulation that orthodox economists generally opposed.