IESET.
Movements·egypt_sisi_second_term_2018_2024

Sisi second term — constitutional amendment, New Administrative Capital, Hayah Karima

EGY·2018 – 2024·Presidency under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi; Mostaqbal Watan coalition; Armed Forces economic apparatus
Leaders: Abdel Fattah el-Sisi (President, re-elected Mar 2018 with 96.91% on ~41% turnout) · Mostafa Madbouly (Prime Minister, Jun 2018–) · Tarek Amer / Hassan Abdalla (CBE Governors) · Mohamed Maait (Finance Minister)
positionsdemocratic_socialistdevelopmentalismeco_socialistmarket_socialistmarxianmarxist_leninistnew_keynesianpost_keynesianempirical_pragmatistsocial_democraticaustrianchicago_monetarismclassical_liberalinstitutionalismordoliberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Second-term consolidation of military-sovereign-directed capitalism built around three pillars: the April 2019 constitutional amendment (88.83% yes on 44% turnout) extending presidential terms to six years and allowing Sisi to stand again in 2024; the New Administrative Capital mega-project (phased inauguration 2021-2024) as flagship off-budget investment anchored by the Armed Forces Engineering Authority and ACUD; and the Decent Life ("Hayah Karima") rural-upgrading initiative launched July 2019 covering ~58m inhabitants at a headline ~700bn EGP price tag. The period absorbed the COVID-19 shock via a $2.8bn IMF rapid-financing instrument (May 2020) and $5.2bn stand-by (Jun 2020), then re-entered programme territory with the $3bn EFF in December 2022 as FX shortages reappeared. Left-right: authoritarian nationalist-military with statist product-market content and orthodox-leaning fiscal content. The coherence line: megaproject Keynesianism financed by external borrowing, Gulf deposits, and military-economy rents, justified by a stability narrative in a region of failed neighbours.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · moderate
higher spending share
Mega-project off-budget capex, Hayah Karima rural spend, pandemic fiscal response.
↑
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Takaful/Karama expansion during COVID partially offset by continued subsidy reform.
↓
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
decreased · strong
more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers
Armed Forces economic footprint expanded across cement, steel, food, logistics, contracting.
↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · strong
weaker judicial independence
2019 amendments gave President enhanced role in judicial appointments; expanded military-court jurisdiction.
↑
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
increased · weak
expansionary (balance sheet, rates lower than Taylor)
Cuts 2018-2021; partial reversal post-Oct 2022 devaluation.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
democratic_socialist
derived: score=+0.96, overlap=4 axes vs democratic_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
developmentalism
derived: score=+0.50, overlap=5 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
eco_socialist
derived: score=+0.95, overlap=3 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
market_socialist
derived: score=+0.71, overlap=5 axes vs market_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
marxian
derived: score=+0.99, overlap=4 axes vs marxian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
marxist_leninist
derived: score=+1.00, overlap=4 axes vs marxist_leninist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
new_keynesian
derived: score=+0.49, overlap=5 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
post_keynesian
derived: score=+0.92, overlap=5 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
empirical_pragmatist
derived: score=-0.36, overlap=5 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
social_democratic
derived: score=+0.29, overlap=5 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
austrian
derived: score=-0.94, overlap=5 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
chicago_monetarism
derived: score=-0.92, overlap=5 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
classical_liberal
derived: score=-0.89, overlap=5 axes vs classical_liberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
institutionalism
derived: score=-0.49, overlap=5 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
ordoliberal
derived: score=-0.97, overlap=5 axes vs ordoliberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)

References

Notes

Second-term economic coherence depends on classifying off-budget NAC/military-contractor spend as public spending — conventional central-government figures understate it.