Second Grand Coalition delivering the 'asymmetric demobilisation' synthesis — Merkel absorbing SPD social priorities (federal statutory minimum wage €8.50 from Jan 2015, Mütterrente, Rente mit 63 early-retirement option) while maintaining balanced budgets (Schwarze Null 2014-2017, 4 consecutive surpluses). Defining episode: Sep 2015 decision not to close the southern border, admitting ~1 million Syrian/Iraqi refugees ('Wir schaffen das') — triggered AfD rise, Easter-weekend border reinstatement with Austria, and the EU-Turkey Statement (Mar 2016 €6bn). Also: third Greek Memorandum (Jul 2015), Paris Agreement (Dec 2015), Mietpreisbremse rent cap (2015), digital-single-market progress under Günther Oettinger. Left-right: centrist with visible left drift on social policy. Popularity: CDU/CSU 41.5% (2013), 32.9% (2017 — historic low, 171 days to form next GroKo); AfD entered Bundestag with 12.6%. Coherence: high on aggregate management; the 2015 migration decision split the coalition's Bavarian CSU partner and reshaped party system.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Mütterrente, Rente mit 63; real social-spending rise.
Rent ceilings, rent freezes, renewal caps, eviction restrictions tied to regulated rent contracts, and exemption rules for new construction or small landlords.
increased · moderate
more binding or broader rent control
Mietpreisbremse 2015 capped new contracts in designated tight markets while exempting newbuild and substantial modernisation.