Movements · germany_merkel_iv_2017_2021 Merkel IV CDU/CSU-SPD Grand Coalition 2018-2021 DEU · 2018 – 2021· CDU/CSU (246) + SPD (153) GroKo III (formed after failed Jamaica talks)
Leaders: Angela Merkel (Chancellor, final term) · Olaf Scholz (SPD, Finance Minister and Vice-Chancellor) · Peter Altmaier (Economy Minister)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Transitional final Merkel term — delayed 171 days by failed CDU/CSU-FDP-Greens 'Jamaica' talks — defined by COVID-19 response and Next Generation EU negotiation. Economic school: ordoliberal fiscal orthodoxy suspended under emergency clause (Notlage, Art. 115 GG) allowing debt-brake derogation for 2020-21. Signature measures: Corona-Sondervermögen / KfW credit lines (Mar 2020 €1.2tn envelope), Kurzarbeit re-expansion, VAT cut (Jul-Dec 2020 19%→16%), €130bn stimulus package (Jun 2020), and decisive role in NGEU agreement (Jul 2020 €750bn) with Macron — the first joint EU debt issuance. Domestically: CO2-Bepreisung launched Jan 2021 (€25/t), coal-exit law (2020, Kohleausstieg by 2038), and Nord Stream 2 completion (pipeline finished Sep 2021, never certified). Left-right: centrist, visibly shifted toward state activism under COVID. Popularity: CDU/CSU 32.9% (2017 election that produced this government), collapsed to 24.1% in 2021 post-Merkel. Coherence: moderate — energy strategy (Russia-gas + coal-exit + nuclear-exit) increasingly visibly contradictory in the run-up to Feb 2022.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↑
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
COVID emergency debt brake suspension; deficit 4.3% (2020), 3.6% (2021).
↑
environmental stringency → regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · strong
more stringent environmental rules
National ETS launch, Kohleausstieg schedule, Klimaschutzgesetz revisions.
↓
energy supply security → regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
decreased · moderate
lower supply-security posture (single-supplier dependence, early phase-outs)
Nord Stream 2 completion despite US-Ukraine opposition; coal-exit without nuclear-exit reversal.
↑
sectoral subsidy → fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
KfW SME liquidity, Lufthansa €9bn bailout, Konjunkturprogramm 2020.
Policies enacted · de_corona_sondervermoegen_2020 · de_ngeu_agreement_2020 · de_vat_cut_covid_2020 · de_kohleausstieg_2020 · de_co2_bepreisung_2021 Schools of thought aligned or opposed aligned developmentalism derived: score=+0.73, overlap=3 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned eco_socialist derived: score=+0.87, overlap=4 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned empirical_pragmatist derived: score=+0.55, overlap=4 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned market_socialist derived: score=+1.00, overlap=2 axes vs market_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned marxian derived: score=+1.00, overlap=2 axes vs marxian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned marxist_leninist derived: score=+1.00, overlap=2 axes vs marxist_leninist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned new_keynesian derived: score=+0.95, overlap=4 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned post_keynesian derived: score=+0.97, overlap=4 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned social_democratic derived: score=+0.75, overlap=4 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial institutionalism derived: score=-0.26, overlap=3 axes vs christian_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial democratic_socialist derived: score=-0.30, overlap=2 axes vs democratic_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed classical_liberal derived: score=-0.92, overlap=4 axes vs classical_liberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial ordoliberal derived: score=-0.25, overlap=4 axes vs ordoliberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed austrian derived: score=-0.83, overlap=4 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed chicago_monetarism derived: score=-0.98, overlap=4 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
References Nachtragshaushaltsgesetze 2020, 2021 Kohleverstromungsbeendigungsgesetz (KVBG, 2020) Brennstoffemissionshandelsgesetz (BEHG, 2019) IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.