IESET.
Movements·india_modi_third_term_2024_present

Modi third term — coalition NDA 3.0 (India)

IND·2024 – present·BJP-led NDA: BJP + TDP (Andhra Pradesh) + JD(U) (Bihar) + LJP(RV) + JD(S) + Shiv Sena (Shinde) + others
Leaders: Narendra Modi (Prime Minister, third consecutive term from June 2024) · Nirmala Sitharaman (Finance Minister) · Amit Shah (Home Minister) · Piyush Goyal (Commerce and Industry) · Shaktikanta Das / Sanjay Malhotra (RBI Governor transition Dec 2024) · N. Chandrababu Naidu (TDP, coalition partner) · Nitish Kumar (JD(U), coalition partner)
positionsdevelopmentalismclassical_liberalordoliberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Continuation of the Hindutva-economic-nationalism doctrine from the 2014-2024 period but now under genuine coalition constraint after the BJP fell from 303 (2019) to 240 seats in the 543-seat Lok Sabha on 4 June 2024 — NDA total 293 — forcing reliance on TDP and JD(U) to govern. Economic school: supply-side manufacturing-push (PLI scheme continuation, semiconductor incentives, defence-indigenisation), welfare-transfer digitisation (JAM-trinity-based DBT, Ayushman Bharat expansion to all 70+), fiscal-consolidation path (FY26 deficit target ~4.4% of GDP), and infrastructure-capex continuity (~₹11.11 trillion capex in Union Budget 2024-25 and FY26). Economically right-of-centre (market-friendly on corporate, FDI, trade facilitation) combined with culturally hard-right cultural-legislation continuation — Waqf (Amendment) Act 2025 (Apr 2025) restructuring Muslim religious- endowment boards, Uniform Civil Code push in Uttarakhand (enforced Jan 2025), One Nation One Election constitutional amendment bills tabled Dec 2024. Key first-year policies: New Income Tax Bill 2025 (simplified replacement for 1961 Act), Union Budget 2024-25 with personal income tax rationalisation under new regime, continued Vande Bharat / bullet-train / expressway capex, stake-sale programme for public-sector enterprises slowed by coalition politics. Popularity: BJP 36.6% vote share / 240 seats in 2024 (down from 37.4% / 303 in 2019); NDA aggregate ~46% / 293 seats; INDIA bloc 234 seats (INC up to 99 from 52). Modi approval remained net-positive through 2024-2025 (Morning Consult tracker ~55-60% approve) but below 2019 peak. State elections mixed: BJP won Haryana Oct 2024, Maharashtra Nov 2024, Delhi Feb 2025; lost Jharkhand Nov 2024. Coherence line: supply-side manufacturing + welfare-transfer digital rails + cultural-legislation push, now coalition-constrained so land / labour / farm reform is effectively off the table for the term.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · weak
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
New regime rationalisation lowers effective rates for middle brackets; standard deduction raised; old-regime progressivity preserved as optional.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · strong
expanded sectoral subsidies
PLI scheme continuation across 14 sectors, India Semiconductor Mission second-phase approval, shipbuilding / component-manufacturing incentives.
~
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
mixed · moderate
Capex held high (~3.4% of GDP) but fiscal-deficit glide path to 4.4% in FY26 keeps aggregate spending growth restrained.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · weak
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Ease-of-doing-business and compliance-reduction drives continue; Jan Vishwas 2.0 decriminalisation bill tabled 2024.
~
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
mixed · weak
UK FTA signed May 2025; EU FTA talks ongoing; targeted tariff hikes on electronics and steel components offset.
~
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
mixed · moderate
Coalition constraint strengthens parliamentary checks relative to 2019-2024 majority; Waqf Amendment and UCC litigation ongoing.
~
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
mixed · weak
Collegium vs NJAC tension continues; no statutory change; executive-judicial friction over appointments publicly visible.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
developmentalist_state_growth_performance

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
PLI scheme + semiconductor mission are explicit mission-oriented industrial policy.
partial
classical_liberal
Corporate-tax competitiveness and trade-facilitation continuity; offset by subsidy expansion and cultural-legislation agenda.
partial
ordoliberal
Fiscal-glide-path rule-based; GST Council federal architecture preserved.

References

Notes

Analytically distinct from 2014-2024 because the coalition constraint is structural: land, labour, farm-reform, and One Nation One Election require numbers BJP no longer has outright. Cultural-legislation agenda (Waqf, UCC) proceeds via parliamentary arithmetic NDA still has. Separate movement record per Invariant 3 — same party, different policy-content envelope.