IESET.
Movements·indonesia_suharto_oil_boom_1976_1985

Suharto New Order oil-boom + Pertamina crisis + Pancasila economy (Indonesia)

IDN·19761985·Golongan Karya (Golkar) under Suharto, ABRI-backed
Leaders: Suharto (President, New Order) · Widjojo Nitisastro (Bappenas Chair, Berkeley Mafia) · Ali Wardhana (Finance Minister 1968-1983) · Radius Prawiro (Finance Minister 1983-1988) · Ibnu Sutowo (Pertamina head until 1976)
positionsdevelopmentalismclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

New Order middle-phase Suharto doctrine blending Berkeley-Mafia macroeconomic orthodoxy with rising resource-nationalist overlay under 'Pancasila economy' rhetoric. Economic school: developmentalist Berkeley- Mafia technocracy managing the 1974-1981 oil-boom rents and partial import-substitution drift. Dated actions: Pertamina debt crisis Feb 1975 — USD10.5bn debt bailout finalised 1976; 15 Nov 1978 'KENAIKAN' rupiah devaluation -33.6% (Rp415 to Rp625/USD) prompting consumption- protection price controls; 30 Mar 1983 devaluation -27.6% (Rp625 to Rp970/USD) post-oil-price decline; PAKTO 27 Oct 1988 deregulation pipeline groundwork laid 1983 banking reform (BI rediscount rates liberalised, state-bank lending ceilings lifted 1 Jun 1983); tax reform Dec 1983 (VAT 10% from 1 Apr 1985, new Income Tax Law, Property Tax Law) — first modern tax code, doubled tax/GDP ratio within 5 years; Repelita III (1979-1984) and IV (1984-1989) five-year plans; rice self-sufficiency achieved 1984 via BULOG + Bimas programmes; Garuda-Harapan-Kita flag-project, Krakatau Steel, IPTN aircraft under Habibie high-tech push. Left-right: centre-right authoritarian with technocratic macro core. Popularity: 1977 election Golkar 62.1%; 1982 Golkar 64.3%; 1987 Golkar 73.1% (controlled elections, no meaningful opposition). Coherence: high — macro discipline, tax reform, export diversification from oil dependency via Paket Juni 1983 banking dereg, all mutually reinforcing despite resource-nationalist rhetoric.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Paket Juni 1 Jun 1983 lifted state-bank credit ceilings and liberalised BI rediscount rates — first major banking reform.
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · moderate
higher corporate tax burden
1983 tax reform introduced modern corporate-income code and VAT from 1985, doubling tax/GDP.
~
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
mixed · weak
Devaluations export-supportive; import-substitution drift on strategic sectors.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · strong
expanded sectoral subsidies
Oil-boom-funded BULOG rice subsidies, fuel subsidies, heavy-industry SOE expansion (Krakatau, IPTN).
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Authoritarian controls continuous; PAKTO-era reforms not accompanied by political opening.
monetary expansion direction
monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
decreased · weak
contractionary (balance sheet shrink, rates above Taylor)
Stabilisation discipline post-1983 devaluation; BI reined credit.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
classical_liberal
Berkeley-Mafia tax + banking reforms.

References

Notes

Deep-history tranche 1. Narrow time-slice of indonesia_suharto_new_order_1965_1998.