Movements · israel_begin_likud_1977_1983 Begin Likud — economic liberalisation attempt, inflation spiral, settlement expansion ISR · 1977 – 1983· Likud-led coalition (Likud, NRP, Agudat Yisrael) — 'Mahapach' (upheaval) government
Leaders: Menachem Begin (Prime Minister 1977-1983) · Simcha Ehrlich (Finance Minister 1977-1979 — architect of 1977 economic liberalisation) · Yigal Hurvitz (Finance Minister 1979-1981) · Yoram Aridor (Finance Minister 1981-1983 — 'correct economics' consumer-subsidy populism)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Begin's 1977 'Mahapach' broke 29 years of Mapai/Labour rule and launched the first serious liberalisation attempt in Israel's state-led economy. Economic school: Ehrlich's October 1977 economic upheaval removed foreign exchange controls, devalued the lira ~43%, ended multiple exchange rates, and shifted toward an open market model — right-wing on the classic left-right axis relative to Labour's corporatist social democracy. Program quickly unravelled: inflation ran 50% in 1978, 110% by 1979, 130% by 1980; Camp David Accords (1978) brought a US aid boost but Sinai withdrawal cost; Lebanon war (June 1982) imposed fiscal strain. Aridor's 1981-82 'correct economics' stabilised the shekel nominally via consumer subsidies and import liberalisation just before the 1981 elections — electoral bump (Likud held 48 seats) but accelerated the imbalances that produced the 1983 bank-shares crash. Popularity: 1977 election 43 seats (Likud), 1981 re-election 48 seats. Coherence: ideologically coherent (liberalisation + settlements + peace with Egypt + hawk on Lebanon) but fiscally incoherent — simultaneous defence spending, settlement subsidies, consumer subsidies, and tax cuts produced runaway inflation.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↑
trade openness → regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
1977 FX liberalisation ended multiple exchange rates, removed capital controls temporarily.
↑
financial deregulation → regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Partial capital-account opening 1977; reversed after 1983 banking crisis.
↑
monetary expansion direction → monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
increased · strong
expansionary (balance sheet, rates lower than Taylor)
Inflation reached 400%+ by 1984 on cumulative monetary financing of deficits.
↑
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
Simultaneous defence, settlement, and consumer-subsidy spending expanded deficit sharply.
↑
sectoral subsidy → fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · strong
expanded sectoral subsidies
Settlement subsidies and Aridor consumer subsidies expanded targeted spending.
Policies enacted · il_1977_economic_upheaval_fx_liberalisation · il_camp_david_accords_1978 · il_aridor_consumer_subsidies_1981 · il_1983_bank_shares_crisis · il_west_bank_settlement_expansion_likud_1977 Schools of thought aligned or opposed partial institutionalism derived: score=+0.36, overlap=5 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned developmentalism derived: score=+0.73, overlap=5 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned market_socialist derived: score=+0.99, overlap=4 axes vs market_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned marxist_leninist derived: score=+0.48, overlap=4 axes vs marxist_leninist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned new_keynesian derived: score=+0.98, overlap=5 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned post_keynesian derived: score=+0.47, overlap=5 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial austrian derived: score=-0.33, overlap=5 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial chicago_monetarism derived: score=-0.27, overlap=5 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial eco_socialist derived: score=+0.31, overlap=3 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial empirical_pragmatist derived: score=+0.28, overlap=5 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial social_democratic derived: score=+0.38, overlap=5 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed democratic_socialist derived: score=-0.65, overlap=4 axes vs democratic_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed classical_liberal derived: score=-1.00, overlap=2 axes vs market_liberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
References Bank of Israel Annual Report 1977, 1981 Camp David Accords, 17 September 1978 Bruno-Fischer (1986), Inflation and Stabilization in Israel Notes Begin resigned September 1983 citing personal grief and political exhaustion; Shamir succeeded as PM.
IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.