IESET.
Movements·pakistan_nawaz_sharif_pmln_iii_2013_2017

Nawaz Sharif PML-N third term — CPEC launch and IMF stabilisation (Pakistan)

PAK·20132017·Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) single-party majority government, 190/342 National Assembly seats; military establishment partnership under COAS Raheel Sharif (2013-2016)
Leaders: Nawaz Sharif (Prime Minister 2013-2017, third non-consecutive term, ousted by Supreme Court 28 Jul 2017) · Ishaq Dar (Finance Minister 2013-2017) · Shahid Khaqan Abbasi (Petroleum Minister 2013-2017, PM Aug 2017-May 2018 after Sharif's disqualification) · Ahsan Iqbal (Planning and Development / CPEC lead minister) · Gen Raheel Sharif (COAS 2013-2016, Zarb-e-Azb architect) · Gen Qamar Javed Bajwa (COAS from Nov 2016)
positionsclassical_liberaldevelopmentalismnew_keynesiandemocratic_socialist

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Centre-right business-establishment-orthodoxy programme from a Punjab-based industrial-mercantile party returning to power after a 2008-2013 PPP interregnum, combining (i) IMF-led macro- stabilisation — the $6.64bn Extended Fund Facility (Sep 2013) that pulled foreign reserves from under 2 weeks of import cover to ~5 months, disinflation from ~8% to ~4%, and fiscal-deficit narrowing from 8.2% to 4.6% of GDP via GST rate widening and administrative measures; (ii) the flagship China-Pakistan Economic Corridor ($46bn initial envelope announced April 2015, later expanded to ~$62bn), front-loaded on energy (coal-fired Sahiwal, Port Qasim, LNG regasification terminals, hydro) to resolve the 12-18h/day load-shedding that had constrained industrial output for a decade; (iii) a reconciliation-then-rupture relationship with the military establishment, close coordination during Operation Zarb-e-Azb (Jun 2014-), the North Waziristan counter-terrorism operation displacing ~1m civilians and substantially reducing TTP operational tempo, but civil-military tensions over Dawn Leaks 2016 and the Panama Papers reference. Secondary policy content: GIDC gas- infrastructure-development-cess litigation, power-sector circular- debt management, Metro Bus / Orange Line Lahore urban transit, National Action Plan on terrorism (Dec 2014), Benazir Income Support Programme continuation from the PPP era without structural redesign. Coherence line: stabilisation + infrastructure + security under military partnership, ended by Supreme Court disqualification on 28 July 2017 (Panama Papers verdict) rather than electoral defeat. Popularity: 2013 election 32.8% vote / 166 directly-elected NA seats (majority with reserved seats); approval strong in Punjab through 2015, eroded 2016-17 under Panama Papers and Dawn Leaks controversies.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
Fiscal deficit narrowed from 8.2% to 4.6% of GDP 2013-2016 under IMF-EFF discipline before relaxation 2017.
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · weak
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Revenue-raising led by GST widening and withholding taxes rather than direct-tax base expansion; net distributional effect regressive at the margin.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
CPEC energy projects subsidised via sovereign guarantees, capacity payments, and upfront IPP tariffs.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · weak
more open trade
China-Pakistan FTA Phase 2 negotiations advanced; trade orientation eastward rather than tariff liberalisation overall.
energy supply security
regulatory.energy_supply_security
Policy posture toward energy supply security — domestic production capacity, import diversification, strategic reserves, nuclear stance, fossil-fuel mix discipline.
increased · strong
higher supply-security posture (diversified, strategic reserves)
Generation capacity added ~10GW 2013-2018 via CPEC coal, LNG regasification, hydro; load-shedding substantially reduced by 2017.
~
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
mixed · weak
Zarb-e-Azb restored state writ in FATA; Panama Papers verdict removed a sitting PM by Supreme Court order, contested as politicised.
~
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
mixed · weak
Supreme Court asserted authority in Panama Papers; framing contested by PML-N as military-judicial alignment.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
imf_stabilisation_program_effects
not yet written
infrastructure_investment_growth_effect

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
classical_liberal
Pro-business orientation, IMF-programme adherence, privatisation rhetoric; undermined by dynastic patronage and administrative-state protectionism.
aligned
developmentalism
CPEC energy and infrastructure front-loading is classic state-directed infrastructure push.
partial
new_keynesian
Orthodox fiscal-monetary stabilisation under IMF conditionality.

References

Notes

Third non-consecutive Nawaz Sharif term. Earlier terms (1990-93, 1997-99) coded separately if/when materialised. Ouster by judicial disqualification rather than parliamentary or electoral mechanism is institutionally distinctive and flagged on institutional axes. Successor Abbasi premiership (Aug 2017-May 2018) treated as continuity of this movement rather than separate coding.