Right-populist security-first project fusing a punitive anti-drug campaign and strong-man rhetoric with technocratic macro-fiscal management and heavy public-infrastructure spending. Core pillars were (1) the 'war on drugs' from July 2016 — tens of thousands of killings documented by domestic and UN sources — pursued under presidential political cover and accompanied by institutional moves against critics (ABS-CBN franchise denial July 2020, ouster of CJ Sereno May 2018 via quo warranto, Ressa/Rappler cases, withdrawal from the Rome Statute / ICC effective March 2019); (2) an 'independent foreign policy' publicly distancing Manila from Washington and courting Beijing and Moscow, while in practice the Mutual Defense Treaty and VFA were retained after wobble; (3) a Dominguez-led macro-economic programme delivering the TRAIN personal-income-tax reform (RA 10963, Dec 2017), the CREATE corporate-tax-cut and incentives rationalisation (RA 11534, Mar 2021, cutting CIT from 30% to 25%/20%), rice tariffication (RA 11203, Feb 2019) replacing NFA import monopoly with 35% tariffs, and the ₱8-9 trillion 'Build Build Build' infrastructure pipeline targeting 5-7% of GDP in public investment; (4) the Bangsamoro Organic Law (RA 11054, July 2018) implementing the 2014 Comprehensive Agreement on the Bangsamoro and creating the BARMM. COVID response combined strict militarised lockdowns (one of the longest in the world) with the Bayanihan I/II fiscal packages.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
mixed · moderate
TRAIN raised the PIT zero-bracket to ₱250k and cut middle brackets (progressive bite) but financed this with regressive VAT-base broadening and excise hikes on fuel, sugar-sweetened beverages, tobacco.
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
Build Build Build targeted public infra spending at 5-7% of GDP vs. historic ~2-3%; general government spending share rose materially, compounded by COVID Bayanihan packages.
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
Quo-warranto removal of sitting Chief Justice Sereno (May 2018); court-packing via normal attrition during the term.
Policies enacted
· ph_train_tax_reform_2017
· ph_create_corporate_tax_cut_2021
· ph_build_build_build_2017_2022
· ph_rice_tariffication_2019
· ph_bangsamoro_organic_law_2018
· ph_drug_war_2016
· ph_icc_withdrawal_2019
· ph_abs_cbn_franchise_denial_2020
What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses
The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.
Sustained erosion of horizontal-accountability institutions (ICC exit, franchise denial, extrajudicial violence) is the principal institutionalist critique.
References
RA 10963 (TRAIN), 19 December 2017
RA 11534 (CREATE), 26 March 2021
RA 11203 (Rice Tariffication Act), 14 February 2019
RA 11054 (Bangsamoro Organic Law), 27 July 2018
UN OHCHR Report on the Philippines, A/HRC/44/22, June 2020
COMELEC, 2016 National Elections Official Canvass
Notes
Electoral mandate: 16.6 million votes (39.0% plurality) in the 2016 election, against Roxas 23.5%, Poe 21.4%, Binay 12.7%, Santiago 3.4%. VP race won by Robredo (LP) by ~260k votes. 17th and 18th Congresses were de facto Duterte supermajorities after mass LP defections — by 2019 PDP-Laban, PFP and allies held ~270 of 304 House seats and 17+ of 24 Senate seats. Pulse Asia/SWS net satisfaction ran +50 to +79 throughout most of the term — historically the highest sustained rating of any post-1986 Philippine president.