IESET.
Movements·russia_putin_fifth_term_2024_present

Putin fifth term entrenched war economy 2024-present

RUS·2024 – present·United Russia; Putin presidency with Mishustin PM
Leaders: Vladimir Putin (President, May 2024-present; term constitutionally permitted to 2030, with reset option to 2036) · Mikhail Mishustin (Prime Minister, continuing) · Andrei Belousov (Defence Minister, May 2024-present, replaced Shoigu) · Elvira Nabiullina (CBR Chair, continuing)
positionsmarxist_leninistdevelopmentalismclassical_liberalaustrian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Putin fifth term — entrenchment of the war-economy state-capitalism established post-2022. Continuity government with one notable reshuffle: Belousov (an economist, not a soldier) installed as Defence Minister to manage the budgetary scale of the war as a permanent fiscal regime, signalling defence spending at ~6-7% of GDP and ~30-40% of federal expenditure as the new normal. CBR policy rate held high (16-21% range through 2024-2025) to contain war-spending inflation. Continued mass nationalisation/discount buyout of exiting foreign assets; deepening capital controls; energy-export pivot to India and China at sustained discount; expanded sanctions-evasion infrastructure (parallel imports, rouble-yuan settlement, BRICS+ payment rails). Domestic repression intensified — Navalny death Feb 2024, expanded foreign-agent regime, Memorial criminalisation extended. Demographic strain from war casualties and emigration is now a binding constraint on labour supply, pushing wages up and feeding inflation. The regime treats this as a multi-year-to-decade configuration rather than a temporary emergency.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
Repression deepened post-Navalny; foreign-agent regime expanded; war censorship entrenched.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
Defence ~30-40% of federal spending normalised as multi-year regime, not emergency.
↑
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
increased · strong
more progressive (higher top rates, wider spread, larger targeted credits)
2025 tax reform added progressive PIT brackets up to 22%.
↑
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · moderate
higher corporate tax burden
2025 tax reform raised the corporate profit-tax rate from 20% to 25%.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Sanctions regime hardening; G7 trade severed; Asia-pivot at structural discount.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
CBR retains technical independence; high-rate policy held against political pressure.
↓
property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
decreased · strong
weaker property rights
Foreign-owned assets nationalised at deep discount; expropriation now codified procedure.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
marxist_leninist
Authoritarian state-capitalist war economy with FSB-organised political control; planning-element resource allocation but private property and markets retained — Soviet-successor-state texture without ideological communism.
aligned
developmentalism
Far-right civilisational nationalism, anti-Western, traditional-values, ethno-religious mobilisation, war-economy industrial mobilisation.
opposed
classical_liberal
Mass nationalisation of foreign-owned assets; rule-of-law collapse; capital controls; press repression — opposed on every classical-liberal axis.
opposed
austrian
Discretionary expropriation regime; sustained fiscal expansion; capital-account closure — opposed on every Austrian axis.

References

Notes

Updated in the Lane B 2026-06-28 tranche by replacing a personnel-only forward reference with material fiscal, monetary, and property-rights policy specs for Putin's fifth term.