IESET.
Movements·russia_putin_fourth_term_2018_2024

Putin fourth term full-scale Ukraine invasion and war economy 2018-2024

RUS·2018 – 2024·United Russia; Putin presidency with Mishustin PM from Jan 2020
Leaders: Vladimir Putin (President, 2018-2024) · Dmitry Medvedev (Prime Minister, to Jan 2020) · Mikhail Mishustin (Prime Minister, from Jan 2020) · Anton Siluanov (Finance Minister); Elvira Nabiullina (CBR Chair)
positionsdemocratic_socialisteco_socialistmarxianmarxist_leninistaustrianchicago_monetarismdevelopmentalismclassical_liberalordoliberalpost_keynesianinstitutionalismsocial_democratic

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Putin fourth term — constitutional entrenchment, Covid response, and the full-scale Ukraine invasion. Economic school: Russian war-economy state-capitalism — 2020 constitutional amendments (resetting Putin's term-clock, allowing presidency until 2036), Covid-era digital-ruble pilots, VAT rise 18%->20% (2019), full-scale invasion of Ukraine 24 Feb 2022, emergency CBR rate hike to 20% and capital controls (rouble stabilised after initial collapse), SWIFT disconnection for major banks, foreign-reserves freeze of ~USD 300bn, partial mobilisation Sep 2022, Wagner Prigozhin mutiny June 2023, budget shift to ~40% of spending on defence-and-security by 2024, sovereign-default event June 2022 on foreign-currency debt. Left-right axis: far-right authoritarian state-capitalist war economy. Dated policies: 2020 constitutional reset (1 July 2020 plebiscite), full-scale invasion 24 Feb 2022, mobilisation 21 Sep 2022, Prigozhin mutiny 23-24 June 2023, Navalny death in custody 16 Feb 2024. Popularity: official >80% throughout; independent polls constrained. Coherence: high through repression; Prigozhin mutiny briefly revealed fractures.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
2020 term-reset amendments; mass political prosecutions; Navalny and others killed in custody.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
War-economy expansion; defence-and-security ~40% of 2024 federal budget.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Post-2022 economic isolation from G7 economies; energy-export pivot to Asia at discount.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
CBR preserved technical independence (emergency rate 20% Feb 2022, 16% Dec 2023) despite political pressure.
↓
property rights
institutional.property_rights
Security of private property rights — formal recognition, expropriation risk, titling systems.
decreased · strong
weaker property rights
Mass nationalisation of exiting foreign-owned assets; expropriation regime formalised.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
democratic_socialist
derived: score=+0.61, overlap=5 axes vs democratic_socialist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
eco_socialist
derived: score=+0.64, overlap=3 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
marxian
derived: score=+0.57, overlap=5 axes vs marxian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
aligned
marxist_leninist
derived: score=+0.58, overlap=5 axes vs marxist_leninist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
austrian
derived: score=-0.42, overlap=5 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
chicago_monetarism
derived: score=-0.37, overlap=5 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
developmentalism
derived: score=+0.36, overlap=4 axes vs national_conservative profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
classical_liberal
derived: score=-0.48, overlap=5 axes vs classical_liberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
ordoliberal
derived: score=-0.26, overlap=5 axes vs ordoliberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial
post_keynesian
derived: score=+0.36, overlap=5 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
institutionalism
derived: score=-0.52, overlap=5 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed
social_democratic
derived: score=-0.59, overlap=4 axes vs third_way profile (mechanical backfill v1)

References