Movements · russia_yeltsin_second_term_1996_1999 Yeltsin second term GKO default and oligarch era 1996-1999 RUS · 1996 – 1999· Yeltsin presidential administration; rotating PMs (Chernomyrdin, Kiriyenko, Primakov, Stepashin, Putin)
Leaders: Boris Yeltsin (President, 1996-1999) · Viktor Chernomyrdin (Prime Minister to Mar 1998) · Sergei Kiriyenko (Prime Minister Mar-Aug 1998) · Yevgeny Primakov (Prime Minister Sep 1998-May 1999) · Sergei Stepashin (Prime Minister May-Aug 1999) · Vladimir Putin (Prime Minister from Aug 1999) · Anatoly Chubais (First Deputy PM / Presidential CoS, privatisation architect)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Yeltsin late-term economic school: distressed transition-economy market-liberalism with oligarch-clientelism — loans-for-shares privatisation consequences, IMF programmes, Asian-crisis contagion, GKO pyramid, culminating in the 17 August 1998 GKO default, rouble devaluation, and debt moratorium. Left-right axis: formally centre- right market-reform, actually factional. Dated policies: post-election IMF Extended Fund Facility (March 1996 onwards), 1997 'seven bankers' (semibankirshchina) public declaration, Asian-contagion pressure on rouble peg (corridor) late 1997, 17 Aug 1998 triple default and devaluation, Primakov stabilisation Sep 1998-May 1999, NATO bombing of Yugoslavia crisis (Mar-Jun 1999), Yeltsin 31 Dec 1999 resignation handing Putin the presidency. Popularity: Yeltsin's approval collapsed into single digits by 1998-99. Coherence: low — serial PM replacements, oligarch infighting, constitutional crisis risk averted.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↓
rule of law → institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
GKO default and oligarchic capture of privatised assets; property rights contested.
↑
monetary expansion direction → monetary.monetary_expansion_direction
Direction of monetary-base expansion decisions relative to trend. Separate from fiscal.transfer_expansion even when correlated.
increased · strong
expansionary (balance sheet, rates lower than Taylor)
Post-Aug-1998 devaluation and rouble collapse; sharp monetary shock.
↓
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
Post-default forced spending retrenchment under IMF conditionality.
↓
financial deregulation → regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
decreased · moderate
looser financial regulation
Post-default capital controls, banking-sector shakeout.
Policies enacted · ru_gko_default_1998 · ru_loans_for_shares_aftermath_1996 · ru_primakov_stabilisation_1998_1999 · ru_yeltsin_resignation_1999 Schools of thought aligned or opposed aligned austrian derived: score=+0.49, overlap=4 axes vs austrian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed developmentalism derived: score=-0.55, overlap=4 axes vs developmentalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial chicago_monetarism derived: score=-0.32, overlap=4 axes vs chicago_monetarism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial classical_liberal derived: score=-0.29, overlap=4 axes vs classical_liberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial empirical_pragmatist derived: score=-0.34, overlap=4 axes vs empirical_pragmatist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial marxian derived: score=+0.18, overlap=3 axes vs marxian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial marxist_leninist derived: score=+0.41, overlap=3 axes vs marxist_leninist profile (mechanical backfill v1)
partial post_keynesian derived: score=-0.32, overlap=4 axes vs post_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed institutionalism derived: score=-0.74, overlap=4 axes vs institutionalism profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed eco_socialist derived: score=-0.93, overlap=2 axes vs ecological profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed new_keynesian derived: score=-0.46, overlap=4 axes vs new_keynesian profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed ordoliberal derived: score=-0.51, overlap=4 axes vs ordoliberal profile (mechanical backfill v1)
opposed social_democratic derived: score=-0.52, overlap=4 axes vs social_democratic profile (mechanical backfill v1)
References CBR decree 17 August 1998 on rouble corridor IMF Stand-By Arrangement Russian Federation July 1998 (USD 22.6bn) IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.