IESET.
Movements·turkey_erdogan_akp_supermajority_2011_2018

Erdoğan / AKP supermajority phase (Turkey 2011-2018)

TUR·2011 – 2018·Justice and Development Party (AKP) — third-term supermajority; post-2016 MHP alliance under OHAL
Leaders: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan (PM 2003-2014; President 2014-present) · Ahmet Davutoğlu (PM 2014-2016) · Binali Yıldırım (PM 2016-2018) · Ali Babacan (Deputy PM for economy, to 2015) · Mehmet Şimşek (Finance minister, to 2018)
positionsdevelopmentalismclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Transition phase from orthodox inflation-targeting / EU-anchored convergence to securitised executive consolidation. Economically, AKP maintained a credit-driven construction-led growth model — heavy TOKİ housing, PPP-guaranteed mega-projects (third bridge 2016, Istanbul airport 2018), and Credit Guarantee Fund (KGF) expansion in 2017 that pushed SME credit growth above 20% to re-stimulate after the 2016 shock. Left-right positioning: Islamic-conservative social policy, economic-nationalist rhetoric on "interest-rate lobby", and rising authoritarian content after Gezi (Jun 2013) and the Dec-2013 corruption probe. Key institutional events: Gezi Park protests June 2013, graft probe December 2013, presidential election Aug 2014 (Erdoğan 51.8%), Jun/Nov 2015 double election, coup attempt 15 Jul 2016, state-of-emergency OHAL 2016-2018 (21-month purge of ~150,000 public employees), constitutional referendum 16 April 2017 (51.4% Yes) abolishing PM and switching to executive presidency, snap-election Jun 24 2018 inaugurating new system. Popularity: AKP 49.8% in Jun-2011, 40.9% Jun-2015, 49.5% Nov-2015, 42.6% Jun-2018; Erdoğan 52.6% in 2018 first-round presidential. Coherence: a single programme of centralising economic command, blunting checks, and running high credit growth to maintain mass support while remaking the constitutional order.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · strong
weaker judicial independence
Post-coup HSK restructuring 2017; ~4,000 judges/prosecutors dismissed under OHAL decrees.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · strong
weaker rule of law
OHAL decree-law governance 2016-2018; ~150,000 public-sector dismissals by KHK.
↓
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
decreased · moderate
more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers
State-linked contracting in mega-projects; TMSF trusteeship of seized firms post-2016.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
KGF expansion 2017 functionally a contingent-liability subsidy to credit-demanding sectors.
↓
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
decreased · moderate
lower independence (fiscal dominance, politicised appointments)
Political pressure on CBRT escalated from 2013; full capture arrives in the subsequent phase.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
central_bank_independence_and_inflation_anchoring

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
developmentalism
Construction-led credit push without East-Asian export discipline.
opposed
classical_liberal
Rule-of-law and competition erosion decisive in this phase.

References

Notes

Phase-scoped slice of the umbrella turkey_erdogan_akp_2002_present; policy overlap is deliberate where cross-phase.