Turkey pre-coup instability — Demirel/Ecevit rotation, BoP crisis, January 24 package

Doctrine — stated goals and content

This pre-coup period covers the collapse of Turkey's import-substitution industrialisation model amid rotating fragile coalitions, political violence (5,000+ killed 1975-80), and a balance-of-payments crisis culminating in the 24 January 1980 stabilisation package. Economic school: failing ISI model (fixed exchange rate, capital controls, state-enterprise-led heavy industry, price controls) under Demirel's Nationalist Front coalitions and Ecevit's CHP-left; the 24 January 1980 package (designed by Özal under Demirel's minority government) represented the first clean break toward an export-oriented liberal model — 48.6% devaluation, price-control removal, export subsidies, interest-rate liberalisation. Left-right axis: the overall period straddles left (Ecevit CHP social-democratic) and right (Demirel AP centre-right, MHP ultranationalist) with no stable direction until the Özal package tilted sharply right-market. Popularity: 1977 election CHP 41% / AP 37% — neither could form a stable majority; political violence, hyperinflation (~100% in 1980), and coalition paralysis produced the September 12 1980 military coup. Coherence: essentially nil at the political level — the coherent economic content is concentrated in the January 1980 package, extended under the post-coup Evren junta and then Özal's ANAP (1983+).