IESET.
Movements·uae_mbz_presidency_2022_present

MBZ formal federal presidency: AI-emirate pivot and fiscal broadening

ARE·2022present·Al Nahyan (Abu Dhabi) with Al Maktoum (Dubai) in Federation Supreme Council; absolute-monarchy federation
Leaders: Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (President, May 2022-) · Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum (VP/PM, Ruler of Dubai) · Khaldoon Al Mubarak (Mubadala CEO, presidential court chair) · Tahnoun bin Zayed (NSA, G42 chair)
positionsdevelopmentalismclassical_liberal

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Sovereign-directed post-oil diversification translated from de-facto rule into formal presidency after Khalifa's death. Economic school: state- capitalist with a pronounced technology-emirate push — G42 as a national AI champion, chip and compute sovereignty, Microsoft and BlackRock anchor investments, ADQ/Mubadala/ADIA as industrial-policy vehicles — paired with a measured fiscal broadening (9% federal corporate tax from June 2023 on a previously zero-tax base, retention of free-zone exemptions for qualifying income). Left-right: federation of absolute monarchies; content is pro- business, low-tax, open-investment, socially-liberalising for an Arab Gulf context (weekend switch Jan 2022, non-Muslim Family Law 2022, alcohol and cohabitation decriminalisation continuing from 2020). Foreign policy codifies the Abraham Accords: full implementation of Israel trade and investment channels, climate-diplomacy leadership via COP28 in Dubai (November-December 2023), and a Khaleej regulatory-sandbox posture on virtual assets (VARA Dubai, ADGM). Popularity proxies in the absence of elections: FDI inflows (UNCTAD record inflows 2023-24), SWF AUM growth (ADIA, Mubadala, ADQ combined >$1.5tn), Henley Passport Index ascent (UAE into global top-10 2024), and expatriate retention via Golden Visa expansion. Coherence line: this is a formalisation, not a break — MBZ ratifies the trajectory he already set as de-facto ruler.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
increased · moderate
higher corporate tax burden
9% federal corporate tax introduced June 2023 from zero baseline.
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
G42/AI/compute investment; Mubadala and ADQ directed capital into semiconductors, biotech, clean energy.
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
VARA sandbox, ADGM expansion, continued foreign-ownership liberalisation.
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
increased · moderate
more open trade
CEPA network expansion (India, Indonesia, Turkey, Israel), Abraham Accords trade growth.
immigration openness
regulatory.immigration_openness
Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.
increased · moderate
more open (easier legal immigration, broader asylum)
Golden Visa expansion; expatriate retention policies.

Policies enacted

What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses

The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.

not yet written
rentier_state_non_oil_development
not yet written
free_zone_diversification_effectiveness

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

aligned
developmentalism
SWF-led industrial policy; national champions in AI, logistics, aviation.
partial
classical_liberal
Low-tax, open-investment; contradicted on political and labour rights.

References

Notes

Narrower than umbrella uae_emirate_state_capitalism_1971_present; focuses on post-2022 formal-presidency era.