Formal departure from the EU Single Market and Customs Union; re- imposition of trade frictions with the largest trading partner in exchange for regulatory autonomy + ending free movement of labour. The stated economic rationale was that regulatory autonomy + global- trade repositioning would offset single-market access loss; the OBR and most academic forecasts projected a ~4% long-run GDP level reduction relative to EU membership.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.
decreased · moderate
more restrictive (lower caps, tighter enforcement)
End of EU free movement; points-based system replaced it (net migration has subsequently risen via non-EU routes, producing mixed effect on some metrics).
Regulatory autonomy used inconsistently — some liberalisation (gene editing, financial services) but also continued alignment on many standards to preserve EU access.
Policies enacted
· uk_trade_cooperation_agreement_2020
· uk_end_of_free_movement_2021
· uk_regulatory_divergence_post_brexit
What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses
The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.