Bidenomics: industrial-policy-driven, labour-empowering, antitrust-activist, fiscally expansionary progressive liberalism, self-described as "middle-out and bottom-up" growth and later framed by Jake Sullivan as a "new Washington consensus" explicitly rejecting Washington-consensus trade liberalism. Left- of-centre in left-right terms, though constrained by a 50-50 Senate and divided post-2023. Core content: (i) American Rescue Plan March 2021 ($1.9T pandemic fiscal package with expanded Child Tax Credit, $1,400 checks, state-local aid, UI top-ups); (ii) Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act November 2021 ($1.2T bipartisan physical-infrastructure bill); (iii) CHIPS and Science Act August 2022 ($52B direct semiconductor manufacturing subsidies + $200B authorised R&D); (iv) Inflation Reduction Act August 2022 (~$369B climate/energy tax credits, Medicare drug-price negotiation, corporate 15% book-minimum tax, 1% stock-buyback excise); (v) antitrust activism under Khan + Kanter (2023 FTC-DOJ Merger Guidelines, FTC non-compete ban rule, Microsoft-Activision and JetBlue-Spirit challenges, Big Tech cases); (vi) labour-empowering NLRB under Abruzzo GC (Cemex bargaining-order doctrine, joint-employer rule, expanded remedies); (vii) student-debt relief (Aug 2022 blanket plan struck down by SCOTUS in Biden v. Nebraska June 2023; then SAVE plan + targeted PSLF forgiveness delivering ~$183B cancellation by end of term); (viii) continuation and intensification of Trump-era China tariffs + expanded export controls on advanced semiconductors (Oct 2022 and 2023 BIS rules); (ix) Ukraine military + economic aid packages. Popularity: Biden won 2020 with 51.3% of the popular vote; approval entered at ~55% Jan 2021, fell below 50% by August 2021 (Afghanistan withdrawal + Delta wave) and remained in the high-30s-to-low-40s range for most of the term; Democrats outperformed expectations in the 2022 midterms (held Senate 51-49, narrow House loss), lost the 2024 general election after Biden's late July 2024 withdrawal in favour of Harris (47.8% popular vote). Coherence line: a coherent post-neoliberal industrial-policy and labour-power package, internally tensioned between fiscal expansion and inflation management (2021-2023 CPI peak 9.1%) and between climate subsidy and trade- protection channels.
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
ARP + IIJA + IRA + CHIPS combined gross outlays + authorisations on the order of $5T over horizon; federal primary spending share elevated post-pandemic.
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Expanded CTC 2021, UI top-ups, ACA subsidy extension, SNAP; several provisions allowed to expire.
more restrictive regulation, higher entry barriers
Heightened merger-review stringency, FTC non-compete ban (later enjoined), Big-Tech cases — a regulatory-activism posture that tightens entry terms even where pro-competition in intent.
American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 (Public Law 117-2)
Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act 2021 (Public Law 117-58)
CHIPS and Science Act 2022 (Public Law 117-167)
Inflation Reduction Act 2022 (Public Law 117-169)
FTC-DOJ 2023 Merger Guidelines (December 2023)
Biden v. Nebraska, 600 U.S. ___ (2023)
Jake Sullivan, 'Renewing American Economic Leadership', Brookings, April 27 2023
BIS October 7 2022 and October 17 2023 advanced-computing export control rules
CBO and JCT scoring reports 2021-2024
Notes
Broad administration-level movement. Existing narrower movements (us_biden_ira_chips_2022) capture the industrial-policy core; this movement aggregates the full doctrinal span including antitrust, labour, trade, and social-policy channels. Framework Invariant 3: coded on content, not party label — note the Democratic administration moves trade-openness and product-market-competition axes negatively, an important content-vs-coalition check.