Movements · us_bush_43_first_term_broad_2001_2005 Bush 43 first term — 9/11, Patriot Act, tax cuts, Afghanistan+Iraq, SOX, Medicare Part D USA · 2001 – 2005· Republican Party with narrow Senate majorities (Jeffords flip 2001; recaptured 2002)
Leaders: George W. Bush (President 2001-2009) · Dick Cheney (Vice President) · Paul O'Neill / John Snow (Treasury) · Alan Greenspan (Fed Chair) · Donald Rumsfeld (Defense)
Doctrine — stated goals and content Compassionate-conservative supply-side tax-cut agenda transformed after 11 September 2001 into war-on-terror security state and war-deficit fiscal regime. Six doctrinal pillars: (a) EGTRRA 2001 (P.L. 107-16, 7 June 2001) and JGTRRA 2003 (P.L. 108-27, 28 May 2003) — top marginal rate 39.6%→35%, 10% bracket created, capital-gains cut to 15%, dividends taxed as capital gains, sunsetting 2010; CBO cost ~$1.7T over decade. (b) Patriot Act 2001 (P.L. 107-56, 26 October 2001) — expanded surveillance, Section 215 business records, FISA wall removal, Treasury Title III anti- money-laundering. (c) War authorisations — AUMF 18 Sept 2001 (Afghanistan); Iraq AUMF 16 October 2002 (P.L. 107-243); Operation Enduring Freedom 7 October 2001; Operation Iraqi Freedom 19 March 2003; direct war cost >$1T through 2011. (d) No Child Left Behind 2002 (P.L. 107-110, 8 Jan 2002) — federal standardised-testing accountability regime; Title I funding expansion. (e) Sarbanes- Oxley Act 2002 (P.L. 107-204, 30 July 2002) — response to Enron, WorldCom; PCAOB creation; Section 404 internal-controls attestation. (f) Medicare Modernization Act 2003 (Part D, P.L. 108-173, 8 Dec 2003) — prescription-drug benefit added to Medicare; $400B (CBO) / $534B (CMS) ten-year cost; non-negotiation clause. Stated school: compassionate-conservative supply-side + neoconservative foreign policy + ownership society. Left-right: centre-right fiscally and on regulation of finance; right on security, taxation, and foreign intervention. Popularity: 2000 won electoral college 271-266 despite losing popular vote by 0.5%; post-9/11 approval peaked 90% Sept 2001; 2002 midterms GOP gained Senate and House seats (rare for presidential party); 2004 re-elected 50.7% vs Kerry 48.3% with 286 EVs. Coherence: trade Clinton-era surplus and civil-liberties baseline for permanent tax-cut baseline, security-state architecture, two wars, and major entitlement expansion (Part D) alongside corporate- governance tightening (SOX).
Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes ↓
tax progressivity → fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · strong
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Top rate 39.6→35; dividends/cap-gains cut to 15%.
↓
tax capital → fiscal.tax_capital
Taxation of capital income (dividends, capital gains, inheritance, wealth). Distinct from corporate rate.
decreased · strong
lower capital income tax
JGTRRA cut top capital-gains + dividend rates to 15%.
↑
spending level → fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
War spending + Part D added ~$2T to projected decade outlays.
↑
transfer expansion → fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · moderate
larger transfer footprint
Medicare Part D created new prescription-drug entitlement.
↑
financial deregulation → regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Sarbanes-Oxley tightened corporate-governance regulation post-Enron.
↓
rule of law → institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Patriot Act surveillance expansion; enemy-combatant detention doctrine.
Policies enacted · us_egtrra_tax_cut_2001 · us_jgtrra_tax_cut_2003 · us_patriot_act_2001 · us_afghanistan_iraq_auth_2001_2002 · us_no_child_left_behind_2002 · us_sarbanes_oxley_2002 · us_medicare_part_d_2003 What the data says — linked outcome hypotheses The movement's outcome claims are tied to these hypotheses. Verdicts update as models run.
not yet written supply_side_growth_tax_cut_effect
not yet written war_spending_fiscal_drag
not yet written entitlement_expansion_cost_overrun
Schools of thought aligned or opposed References P.L. 107-16 EGTRRA; P.L. 108-27 JGTRRA P.L. 107-56 USA PATRIOT Act P.L. 107-204 Sarbanes-Oxley P.L. 108-173 Medicare Modernization Act Notes Complements existing narrower us_bush_43_tax_cuts_2001_2003 policy-only file; adds broad first-term movement.
IESET — an empirically-grounded, adversarially-reviewed framework for contemporary economic policy questions. Every hypothesis pre-registered in git before the data is examined.