IESET.
Movements·us_trump_first_term_broad_2017_2021

Trump first term — Republican supply-side + tariff-mercantilism fusion (USA)

USA·2017 – 2021·Republican trifecta 2017-2019 (narrow Senate, House majority); divided government 2019-2021 (Democratic House).
Leaders: Donald Trump (President, first term) · Mike Pence (Vice President) · Steven Mnuchin (Treasury) · Wilbur Ross (Commerce) · Gary Cohn then Larry Kudlow (NEC directors) · Robert Lighthizer (USTR) · Peter Navarro (trade adviser) · Paul Ryan then Kevin McCarthy (House GOP) · Mitch McConnell (Senate Majority Leader 2017-2021) · Stephen Miller (senior policy adviser, immigration) · Neomi Rao then Paul Ray (OIRA deregulation)
positionschicago_monetarismclassical_liberalaustriandevelopmentalismnew_keynesian

Doctrine — stated goals and content

First-term Trump: Republican supply-side tax + deregulation orthodoxy fused with tariff-mercantilism and restrictionist immigration, sitting uneasily alongside legacy Chamber-of-Commerce Republicanism until the 2018 tariff escalation displaced it. Right-of-centre with populist- nationalist overlay. Core content: (i) Tax Cuts and Jobs Act December 2017 (35% → 21% corporate, territorial taxation, individual-bracket cuts sunset 2025, SALT cap, QBI pass-through, ~$1.5T 10-year score); (ii) deregulation surge (Congressional Review Act rollbacks 2017, Trump "2-for-1" Executive Order 13771, Clean Power Plan repeal, WOTUS narrowing, vehicle-GHG rollback, regulatory budget caps, drilling lease expansions); (iii) Section 232 steel + aluminium tariffs March 2018; (iv) Section 301 China tariffs 2018-2019 escalating to ~$370B of imports at rates to 25%, culminating in the Phase One deal January 2020; (v) USMCA (signed Nov 30 2018, entered into force July 1 2020) replacing NAFTA with tighter auto rules-of-origin and labour provisions; (vi) Paris Agreement withdrawal (notice June 2017, effective November 2020); (vii) judicial remaking — Gorsuch 2017, Kavanaugh 2018, Barrett 2020 confirmations plus 54 circuit-court judges; (viii) immigration restriction executive actions — travel ban 2017 (upheld Trump v. Hawaii 2018), Remain-in-Mexico 2019, public-charge rule, asylum restrictions, border-wall funding fights; (ix) CARES Act March 2020 and follow-on COVID fiscal response — $2.2T CARES + PPP + supplemental UI + December 2020 $900B relief — one of the largest peacetime fiscal expansions in US history, with Fed balance-sheet support. Popularity: Trump lost the 2016 popular vote (46.1% vs Clinton 48.2%) but won the Electoral College; approval oscillated 35- 46% for most of the term, never crossing 50% in the RCP average; Republicans lost the House in 2018 midterms (net -40 seats), held Senate; Trump lost the 2020 popular vote 46.8% vs Biden 51.3%. Coherence line: TCJA + deregulation form a coherent supply-side package, the tariff + immigration content is coherent economic- nationalism, COVID response is pragmatic emergency Keynesianism — three different doctrinal registers held together by the person of Trump rather than a unified economic school.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
tax corporate
fiscal.tax_corporate
Statutory and effective corporate tax rates, treatment of depreciation, and international competitiveness.
decreased · strong
lower corporate tax burden
Corporate rate 35% → 21% is largest cut since 1986 Tax Reform Act.
↓
tax progressivity
fiscal.tax_progressivity
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
decreased · moderate
less progressive (flatter rates, compression, smaller credits)
Top individual bracket 39.6% → 37% with SALT cap partial offset; pass-through deduction skewed high-income.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Regulatory-freeze and 2-for-1 EO, CRA rollbacks, OIRA-enforced rulemaking reductions.
↓
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
decreased · strong
less stringent environmental rules
Clean Power Plan repeal, WOTUS narrowing, vehicle-GHG standards rollback, Paris withdrawal, drilling expansions.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
Economic Growth, Regulatory Relief, and Consumer Protection Act 2018 softening Dodd-Frank; CFPB scope reductions.
↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Average US tariff on China rose from ~3% to ~19%; steel/aluminum Section 232; USMCA tighter rules-of-origin.
↓
immigration openness
regulatory.immigration_openness
Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.
decreased · strong
more restrictive (lower caps, tighter enforcement)
Travel ban, Remain-in-Mexico, public-charge, asylum restrictions, refugee-ceiling cut from 110k to 15k.
↑
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · strong
higher spending share
CARES + CAA + supplemental COVID response drove FY2020 deficit to ~15% of GDP; non-COVID base spending also grew.
↑
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
increased · moderate
expanded sectoral subsidies
Farm bailouts offsetting China-retaliation impacts; PPP; fossil-fuel leasing incentives.
—
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
unchanged · weak
Nominated and confirmed 3 SCOTUS justices and 54 circuit judges through normal Senate process; rhetoric against judges did not translate into structural institutional change in the first term.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
chicago_monetarism
TCJA + deregulation aligned; tariffs opposed.
partial
classical_liberal
partial
austrian
Deregulation aligned; tariffs and COVID fiscal response opposed.
partial
developmentalism
Tariff-mercantilism aligned in means; doctrinal frame differs.
partial
new_keynesian
CARES Act scale broadly NK-consistent.

References

Notes

Broad administration-level movement. Narrower existing movements (us_trump_tcja_2017, us_trump_tariffs_2018_2019) cover specific policy bundles; this movement aggregates the full first-term doctrinal arc including deregulation, immigration, judicial, and COVID-response channels. Framework D.3.1 content-over-coalition check: note mixed axis signature — trade, immigration, and spending move strongly against free-market orthodoxy even under a Republican coalition.