IESET.
Movements·us_trump_second_term_2025_present

Trump second term — MAGA-populist economic nationalism (USA)

USA·2025 – present·Republican trifecta — narrow House majority + Senate + presidency. Vance as VP; MAGA-nationalist wing dominant over legacy Chamber-of-Commerce Republicans.
Leaders: Donald Trump (President, second non-consecutive term) · JD Vance (Vice President) · Scott Bessent (Treasury Secretary) · Howard Lutnick (Commerce Secretary) · Jamieson Greer (USTR) · Peter Navarro (senior trade counsellor) · Stephen Miller (deputy chief of staff, immigration) · Elon Musk (DOGE adviser, exited May 2025) · Russell Vought (OMB)
positionsdevelopmentalismaustrianclassical_liberalchicago_monetarism

Doctrine — stated goals and content

MAGA-populist economic-nationalist programme fusing mercantilist tariff- restrictionism, supply-side tax continuity, aggressive deregulation, interior immigration enforcement, and an executive state-capacity conservatism that uses the presidency to discipline what proponents call the "administrative state". Right-populist / right-authoritarian in left-right terms. Headline actions in first 100 days: the April 2 2025 "Liberation Day" reciprocal-tariff executive order imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports plus country-specific tariffs up to 50% (subsequently paused, partially escalated against China to 145% then negotiated down over summer 2025), IEEPA-justified fentanyl/migration tariffs on Canada + Mexico + China (Feb 2025), withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, executive orders restoring Schedule F and shrinking agency headcount, creation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led initially by Elon Musk with a mandate to cut ~$2T in outlays (subsequently narrowed), large-scale ICE enforcement + Alien Enemies Act invocations, CBP enforcement expansion with record-low southern border encounters by spring 2025, rollback of Biden student-debt relief and FTC merger guidelines, pro-crypto executive orders including a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (March 2025), and a budget-reconciliation push to extend expiring TCJA provisions. Popularity: Trump won the 2024 popular vote (~49.8% vs Harris ~48.3%, first Republican popular-vote win since 2004); approval entered at ~52% in January 2025 and slid into the mid-40s by summer 2025 amid tariff-induced market volatility and inflation concerns. Coherence line: a coherent economic-nationalist package on trade + immigration + executive state-capacity, less internally coherent on fiscal policy (tariff revenue + TCJA extension + DOGE cuts versus growing deficits) and institutionally disruptive on rule-of-law / independent-agency axes.

Policy-content fingerprint — how the framework codes this movement on its axes

↓
trade openness
regulatory.trade_openness
Trade policy openness — tariffs, non-tariff barriers, FTAs, industrial protection.
decreased · strong
more protectionist
Average US effective tariff rose from ~2.5% to >15% after April 2 EO; highest since 1930s Smoot-Hawley era.
↓
immigration openness
regulatory.immigration_openness
Immigration policy openness — work visas, family reunification, asylum processing, border enforcement posture.
decreased · strong
more restrictive (lower caps, tighter enforcement)
Mass interior enforcement, asylum restrictions, CBP border crackdown, Alien Enemies Act invocations.
↑
product market competition
regulatory.product_market_competition
Product-market regulation, entry barriers, licensing burdens, network-industry regulation, price controls.
increased · moderate
more competition-friendly (lower entry barriers)
Rollback of Biden-era regulatory stringency (EPA, SEC climate rule, FTC non-compete + merger guidelines).
↓
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
decreased · strong
less stringent environmental rules
Paris withdrawal, IRA credit claw-back attempts, EPA Chevron-era rule reversals, drill-baby-drill posture.
↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · weak
lower spending share
DOGE headcount cuts and programmatic reductions offset by TCJA extension + defence/enforcement surges; net direction unclear at this early stage.
↓
sectoral subsidy
fiscal.sectoral_subsidy
Targeted industrial and sectoral subsidies (renewable energy, chip manufacturing, agriculture, green hydrogen, etc).
decreased · moderate
reduced sectoral subsidies
Attempts to claw back IRA + CHIPS disbursements; selective re-subsidisation of fossil fuels and critical minerals.
↑
financial deregulation
regulatory.financial_deregulation
Financial-sector regulation — banking separation, capital requirements, cross-border activity rules, derivatives oversight.
increased · moderate
tighter financial regulation
CFPB neutering, SEC crypto enforcement reversal, Basel III endgame paused.
↓
judicial independence
institutional.judicial_independence
Independence of the judiciary from executive and legislative encroachment. Specifically captures court-packing, selective prosecution, judicial reshuffles.
decreased · moderate
weaker judicial independence
Pressure on independent agencies (Fed, FTC, NLRB), Schedule F reclassification expanding political appointments, pardons of Jan 6 defendants.
↓
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · moderate
weaker rule of law
Contested executive impoundments, defiance of lower-court orders in immigration removals, DOJ prosecutorial reshuffles.

Policies enacted

Schools of thought aligned or opposed

partial
developmentalism
Tariffs + industrial protection align in means; populist frame diverges from technocratic developmentalism.
opposed
austrian
Trade restriction + executive-state expansion contradict Austrian priors even if deregulation aligns.
opposed
classical_liberal
opposed
chicago_monetarism
Tariff-induced price distortions + Fed-pressure rhetoric contradict monetarist priors.

References

Notes

Coded as a single broad movement capturing the administration's economic- nationalist doctrine. Individual headline EOs and legislation will be decomposed into child policies as they mature. Framework Invariant 3 requires coding state intervention under Republican coalition at content value — tariffs + executive deregulation + enforcement expansion represents a high-activism state-capacity conservatism, not a laissez- faire government.