IESET.
Policies·italy_scala_mobile_indexation_1975

Italy Scala Mobile Indexation 1975

ITA·1945 1992candidate
movessectoral licensingtransfer expansionspending levelrule of law

What the policy did

The 25 January 1975 Confindustria–CGIL/CISL/UIL agreement (later codified by Law 38/1986) established the Scala Mobile, a uniform automatic wage-indexation mechanism whereby a flat lira-amount wage adjustment was added to all workers' pay packets each quarter to compensate for changes in a basket-of-goods price index. The scheme amplified the inflation pass-through from oil shocks, compressed wage differentials, and was progressively dismantled through the 1984 Craxi decree-law, the 1992 Amato accord and the 1993 Ciampi protocol.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
sectoral licensing
regulatory.sectoral_licensing
Sector-specific licensing regimes, concentration / quota allocation, state-controlled entry (energy, telecoms, healthcare, banking).
increased · weak
tighter sectoral licensing / more state gating
Centralised national-scale wage rules locked sectoral labour costs into rigid pricing structures.
transfer expansion
fiscal.transfer_expansion
Size of cash and near-cash transfer programmes (unemployment benefits, means-tested assistance, universal child benefits). Architecturally distinct from forced-saving schemes — see condition welfare_architecture.
increased · weak
larger transfer footprint
Indexation extended into pension and benefit formulas, raising the social-transfer envelope.
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
increased · weak
higher spending share
Public-sector wages auto-escalated with inflation, raising primary expenditure-to-GDP ratio.
rule of law
institutional.rule_of_law
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
decreased · weak
weaker rule of law
Indexation coexisted with widespread tax-evasion-driven informality, weakening fiscal-rule legitimacy.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Large-scale universal or near-universal transfer programmes produce a three-order causal chain.
universal_transfer_programmes_labour_force_participation_declineinferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionfiscal.spending_level
partial — Prime-age LFP fell by ≥1.0pp in 2/5 cases (threshold for SUPPORTED: ≥3). First-order improved in 3/4 cases. Mixed: consistent with the spec's design-d…
partial
The v1 decomposition (three channels: WGI gov effectiveness, WGI rule of law, IMF debt/GDP) left 98% of the Nordic-vs-Southern-Europe log GDP/capita gap unexplained.
nordic_outcome_persistence_decomposition_v2inferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — coef=-0.1578, p=0.211 (above α=0.1); direction inconclusive
partial
Across emerging-market and developing economies 1990-2020, stronger contract enforcement — measured by years to resolve a commercial dispute, contract-enforcement index, and legal-origin dummies — predicts whether foreign-direct-investment inflows produce productivity spillovers to domestic firms rather than enclave effects.
contract_enforcement_fdi_productivity_spilloversinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawregulatory.sectoral_licensing
SUPPORTED — coef=+0.1145 (sign matches claim +), p=0.0196
supported
Across countries 1996-2023, higher WGI Rule of Law (RL) scores predict higher subsequent real per-capita GDP growth, conditional on standard controls (initial income, investment share, trade openness, demographic composition).
rule_of_law_institutional_growthinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansion
PARTIAL — coef=+5.028e-17, p=0.0526; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Universal single-payer healthcare systems (NHS, Canadian Medicare) produce lower per-capita healthcare expenditure with equal or better life-expectancy outcomes than the US multi-payer system.
single_payer_cost_outcome_comparisoninferred
viafiscal.transfer_expansionregulatory.sectoral_licensinginstitutional.rule_of_law
supported_subset — cost test PASSES (USA per-capita PPP $10957 vs GBR/CAN mean $5663, ratio 1.93x > 1.5); single-payer matched-or-beat USA on 4/5 tested outcome…
supported
Countries in the top quartile of Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality than bottom-quartile countries, consistent with free-market country policy regimes outperforming less market-oriented regimes on this outcome.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_current_gapinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansion
SUPPORTED — top-vs-bottom gap has expected sign - and Welch p=4.272e-10
supported
Conditional on latest real GDP per capita and broad Heritage region, countries with higher Heritage judicial effectiveness in 2024 have lower latest-available under-5 mortality.
heritage_judicial_effectiveness_under5_mortality_income_region_robustnessinferred
viainstitutional.rule_of_lawfiscal.transfer_expansion
SUPPORTED — controlled market-score coefficient has expected sign - and p=0.0374
supported

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.