General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
Progressivity of the personal income tax schedule, including top marginal rates, bracket spread, and targeted credits (EITC-equivalents).
Rule of law as institutional substrate — contract enforcement, judicial independence, equal treatment before the law. Upstream of most other axes.
The Finance Bill 2024 proposed a 2.5% motor-vehicle tax, 16% VAT on bread, eco-levy on sanitary products and electronics, and excise on mobile-money transfers — projected to raise KES 346bn. Sparked leaderless Gen-Z "Occupy Parliament" protests from 18 Jun 2024 that on 25 Jun 2024 breached Parliament after it passed the third reading; at least 60 protesters were killed across subsequent Saba Saba (7 Jul 2024) and later protest waves per KNCHR. On 26 Jun 2024 Ruto declined to assent and returned the bill; on 11 Jul 2024 he dismissed almost the entire cabinet, forming the "broad-based government" with ODM representation in Aug 2024. The episode collapsed the IMF programme's revenue anchor and forced renegotiation of targets in the 9th review.
Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.
Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".
Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.