IESET.
Policies·mrt_imf_ecf_eff_rsf_2023

Mauritania IMF ECF, EFF, and RSF arrangements 2023

MRT·2023 – 2026·enacted 2023-01-25·Ghazouani governmentcandidate
movesspending level↓central bank independence↑environmental stringency↑

What the policy did

Mauritania entered IMF-supported Extended Credit Facility, Extended Fund Facility, and Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangements in January 2023. The programme linked financing to fiscal consolidation, domestic revenue mobilisation, social-spending protection, monetary and exchange-rate policy strengthening, governance reforms, and climate-resilience measures under the RSF window.

Policy-content fingerprint — what this policy moved, on which axes

Per invariant 3, reforms are scored by what they did on each channel-separated axis, not by the party that enacted them. This fingerprint is how the policy-match engine finds historical analogues.

intended
↓
spending level
fiscal.spending_level
General government spending as share of GDP, excluding transfers already captured under fiscal.transfer_expansion to avoid double-counting.
decreased · moderate
lower spending share
The programme targets debt sustainability and deficit control while protecting priority social spending.
↑
central bank independence
monetary.central_bank_independence
De jure and de facto independence of the central bank from fiscal authority. Per D.1.5 scope, one of the framework's defensible monetary positions.
increased · weak
greater independence (legal, operational, personnel)
Monetary and exchange-rate policy strengthening reduces fiscal dominance and improves macro policy credibility.
↑
environmental stringency
regulatory.environmental_stringency
Environmental regulation stringency — emissions caps, standards, phase-out mandates, carbon pricing, renewable portfolio standards.
increased · weak
more stringent environmental rules
The RSF component ties part of the arrangement to climate-resilience policy reforms.

Enacted by

Empirical evidence — linked hypotheses

Explicit links are curated by the author. Inferred links are hypotheses in the library that test the same axes this policy moved — the framework's answer to "what does the data say about a policy like this?".

Truss 2022 mini-budget shows that unfunded fiscal expansion above the ZLB triggers sharp bond-market and currency responses through expected-inflation and risk-premium channels.
unfunded_fiscal_expansion_above_zlb_bond_market_responseinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelmonetary.central_bank_independence
SUPPORTED — GBP/USD trough on 2022-09-26 (1.0703) was 5.02% below the 2022-09-22 pre-announcement close (1.1269); log-decline +0.0515 clears the 3.0% threshold …
supported
UK Truss mini-budget 2022 gilt crisis reflected market confidence and institutional-framework rupture rather than an MMT-predicted hard fiscal limit, because the BoE restored order by intervening as issuer.
uk_truss_mini_budget_currency_sovereign_mechanisminferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independencefiscal.spending_level
partial — Both mechanism legs are directionally consistent but at least one fails the SUPPORTED threshold: FX leg holds (5.02% trough decline); yield leg partia…
partial
UK GDP per capita (PPP, constant international dollars) diverged negatively from a matched synthetic counterfactual of similar-income anglophone/developed economies (USA, CAN, AUS, NZL, DEU, NLD, CHE) starting around 2008 and widening post-2016 (Brexit referendum).
uk_economic_decline_multi_movementinferred
viafiscal.spending_levelmonetary.central_bank_independence
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'uk_post_2008' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects
run pending
The September 2022 UK gilt-market dysfunction had its operative amplification mechanism in the foreign-currency-collateral exposure of the Liability-Driven Investment (LDI) leveraged-derivative chain in the UK pension system, not in a "fiscal limit" reached by the sovereign issuer.
truss_2022_currency_user_ldi_collateral_mechanisminferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independencefiscal.spending_level
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — no outcome variable loaded; missing: ['boe:IUDLG7N', 'boe:IUDMNZC', 'boe:gilt_volatility (manual); ice:UK_gilt_options', 'fred:DEXUS…
run pending
Large welfare states sustain long-run real GDP per capita growth when paired with market flexibility (low product- and labour-market barriers), trade openness, and fiscal discipline (debt-to-GDP below 90%), but not when paired with rigid product and labour markets, in an OECD and rich- country panel 1980-2020.
welfare_state_market_flexibility_complementinferred
viafiscal.spending_level
PARTIAL — coef=+3.308e-18, p=0.653; effect magnitude effectively zero
partial
Japan post-1990 has run gross public-debt-to-GDP ratios from ~70% rising to ~250%, the highest sustained level in the OECD record, WITHOUT triggering inflation, currency collapse, sovereign-spread blowout, or fiscal-dominance-induced loss of monetary control.
fiscal_dominance_japan_debt_non_crisisinferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independencefiscal.spending_level
INCONCLUSIVE_PENDING_DATA
run pending
Argentine monthly CPI inflation declines from its late-2023 peak (around 25% month-on-month in December 2023 following the 54% peso devaluation) to below 5% month-on-month within 12 months of Milei's December 2023 inauguration, and below 3% month-on- month within 18 months.
milei_reforms_reduce_argentine_inflationinferred
viamonetary.central_bank_independencefiscal.spending_level
INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING - INDEC IPC Nacional vintage missing from local data/vintages; expected indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_26 (indec:148.3_INIVELNAL_DICI_M_…
run pending
Fiscal multipliers are state-dependent: large at ZLB, small near full employment; no single-number answer is policy-relevant.
fiscal_multipliers_state_dependentinferred
viafiscal.spending_level
REFUTED — sign - OPPOSITE claim +, cumulative_effect=-1.569, h=5, p_h=0.0155
refuted

Similar historical policies

Ranked by axis-fingerprint overlap with this policy. Direction match bolded — those are the closest historical analogues. Shape of the match is what drives policy-outcome comparison, not the country or party label.

Danish 'kartoffelkur' October 1982 stabilisation package
DNK·1982
match
1.5
central bank independencespending level
Israeli Economic Stabilization Plan (July 1985)
ISR·1985
match
1.5
spending levelcentral bank independence
Israeli Economic Stabilization Plan 1985
ISR·1985
match
1.5
central bank independencespending level
IMF Extended Fund Facility — Sri Lanka $2.9bn (2023)
LKA·2023
match
1.5
spending levelcentral bank independence
Spain EMU entry and convergence programme 1996-1999
ESP·1996
match
1.5
spending levelcentral bank independence
Plano Real — Brazil monetary stabilisation 1994
BRA·1994
match
1.4
central bank independencespending level
Hungarian Bokros package 1995
HUN·1995
match
1.4
spending levelcentral bank independence
Tequila crisis and US-IMF rescue 1994-1995
MEX·1994
match
1.4
central bank independencespending level

References

Notes

IMF documents are used as the primary source for the combined macro-fiscal and climate policy package.