IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run

Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction.

In a panel of OECD commodity-exporting and small open economies, Australia’s post-1983 cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth and labour productivity are positively associated with the reform dummy, while sectoral subsidies and state-owned enterprise shares do not show a comparable positive association.

PARTIALengine/runs/australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run

PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 14 country or place units from 1970 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Australia post 1983
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Labour productivity
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

8 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: reproducible hash verified.

Results

engine/runs/australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run
1007550250197019972024AUSCANNZLGBRNORSWEFIN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 14 sampled countries over 1970–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

11 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:52:40Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction. In a panel of OECD commodity-exporting and small open economies, Australia’s post-1983 cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth and labour productivity are positively associated with the reform dummy, while sectoral subsidies and state-owned enterprise shares do not show a comparable positive association.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the panel-FE coefficient on AUS × post-1983 is negative and significant at p<0.05, or if Australia’s cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is negative over 1983–2024.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_australia_reform
threshold: beta_australia_post1983 > 0 AND p < 0.10; synthetic_gap > 0.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
14 countries · 1970 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: panel FE with AUS × post-1983 interaction. The estimation sample includes a 1970-1982 pre-period so the treatment is identified within Australia under country fixed effects. Secondary: synthetic control for AUS using OECD commodity exporters.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
labour_productivity
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KDtier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
australia_post_1983
treatment
constructed:1 for AUS from 1983 onwardtier 5
binary
initial_gdp_pc_1983
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
level_at_1983
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
commodity_terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — australia_hawke_keating_reform_long_run

Verdict: PARTIAL — coef=-0.03935, p=0.076 (above α=0.05); direction inconclusive

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Australia’s long expansion after the Hawke-Keating reforms (1983–1996) — including tariff cuts, financial deregulation, competition-policy introduction, and fiscal consolidation — is better predicted by market liberalisation than by sector-specific state direction. In a panel of OECD commodity-exporting and small open economies, Australia’s post-1983 cumulative log GDP-per-capita growth and labour productivity are positively associated with the reform dummy, while sectoral subsidies and state-owned enterprise shares do not show a comparable positive association.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the panel-FE coefficient on AUS × post-1983 is negative and significant at p<0.05, or if Australia’s cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is negative over 1983–2024.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_australia_reform

Estimate

  • Method: linearmodels.PanelOLS
  • Coefficient (treatment): -0.03935
  • Std error: 0.02214
  • p-value: 0.076
  • Observations: 605, countries: 11
  • Within R²: 0.449
  • Fixed effects: entity=True, time=True
  • Clustering: country

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD → labour_productivity (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7444)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, publisher=pwt, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • constructed: 1 for AUS from 1983 onward → australia_post_1983 (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=770)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_gdp_pc_1983 (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → commodity_terms_of_trade (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:52:40+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.