IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck

New Zealand’s 1984–1993 liberalisation (deregulation, tariff cuts, privatisation, inflation targeting, and fiscal consolidation) improved long-run macroeconomic stability and tradables-sector productivity over 1984–2024 relative to a synthetic counterfactual of OECD small open economies, but aggregate economy-wide labour productivity and TFP did not improve enough to support strong market-optimism claims.

The hypothesis predicts a positive and significant gap in inflation volatility reduction and trade openness, but a non-positive or modest gap in aggregate labour productivity and TFP.

PARTIALengine/runs/new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck

PARTIAL — mean_gap=-5017, |gap|/pre_sd=6.5, p_perm=0.692 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. mean_gap=-5017, |gap|/pre_sd=6.5, p_perm=0.692 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 13 country or place units from 1984 to 2024, using a synthetic control design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Nz post 1984
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Labour productivity
  • Productivity index
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck
1007550250198420042024NZLAUSCANGBRIRLDNKNOR
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 13 sampled countries over 1984–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

9 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callNew Keynesian (mainstream synthesis)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if MIXEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T19:29:08Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

New Zealand’s 1984–1993 liberalisation (deregulation, tariff cuts, privatisation, inflation targeting, and fiscal consolidation) improved long-run macroeconomic stability and tradables-sector productivity over 1984–2024 relative to a synthetic counterfactual of OECD small open economies, but aggregate economy-wide labour productivity and TFP did not improve enough to support strong market-optimism claims. The hypothesis predicts a positive and significant gap in inflation volatility reduction and trade openness, but a non-positive or modest gap in aggregate labour productivity and TFP.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if (a) NZL's post-reform cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is positive and significant at p<0.10 for aggregate productivity, which would contradict the skeptical limb of the claim, OR (b) the gap in trade openness and inflation volatility is negative and significant, contradicting the supportive limb.

formal test & threshold
test:      synthetic_control_nz_reform
threshold: cumulative_log_gdp_pc_gap <= 0.05 OR not significant at p<0.10 for aggregate productivity (supporting skepticism) AND trade_openness_gap > 0 at p<0.10 (supporting tradables gain). If aggregate productivity gap > 0.10 and p<0.10, the skeptical limb is refuted.

Method

Template
synthetic_control
Clustering
country
Sample
13 countries · 1984 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: synthetic control for NZL treated from 1984, donor pool of OECD small open economies. Secondary: panel FE with NZL × post-1984 interaction.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
labour_productivity
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KDtier 2
level
tfp_index
outcome
pwt:rtfpnatier 3
level
trade_openness
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
manufacturing_va_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZStier 2
level
inflation
outcome
world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZGtier 2
level
nz_post_1984
treatment
constructed:1 for NZL from 1984 onwardtier 5
binary
initial_gdp_pc_1984
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
level_at_1984
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level
terms_of_trade
control
world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WDtier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — new_zealand_reform_long_run_productivity_recheck

Verdict: PARTIAL — mean_gap=-5017, |gap|/pre_sd=6.5, p_perm=0.692 (gap below 0.5×pre_sd or placebo p≥0.10)

Pre-registration

  • Claim: New Zealand’s 1984–1993 liberalisation (deregulation, tariff cuts, privatisation, inflation targeting, and fiscal consolidation) improved long-run macroeconomic stability and tradables-sector productivity over 1984–2024 relative to a synthetic counterfactual of OECD small open economies, but aggregate economy-wide labour productivity and TFP did not improve enough to support strong market-optimism claims. The hypothesis predicts a positive and significant gap in inflation volatility reduction and trade openness, but a non-positive or modest gap in aggregate labour productivity and TFP.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if (a) NZL's post-reform cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is positive and significant at p<0.10 for aggregate productivity, which would contradict the skeptical limb of the claim, OR (b) the gap in trade openness and inflation volatility is negative and significant, contradicting the supportive limb.

Synthetic-control estimate

  • shape: synth_did
  • treated_country: NZL
  • event_year: 1993
  • n_donors: 12
  • donor_weights (top): {'CAN': 1.0, 'AUS': 0.0, 'GBR': 0.0, 'IRL': 0.0, 'DNK': 0.0}
  • pre_rmse: 4748.263926763097
  • pre_period_sd: 775.4558530321101
  • mean_post_gap: -5016.812732992612
  • end_period_gap: -2005.1605115768034
  • post_period_years: [1993, 2024]
  • placebo_p_value: 0.6923076923076923
  • n_placebos: 12
  • method: synthetic-control via NNLS, permutation inference

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc (outcome, n=14066)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD → labour_productivity (outcome, n=7444)
  • pwt:rtfpna → tfp_index (outcome, n=6407)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (outcome, n=10714)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.IND.MANF.ZS → manufacturing_va_share (outcome, n=9698)
  • world_bank_wdi:FP.CPI.TOTL.ZG → inflation (outcome, n=9066)
  • constructed: 1 for NZL from 1984 onward → nz_post_1984 (treatment, n=533)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_gdp_pc_1984 (controls, n=14066)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, n=8637)
  • wgi:GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, n=5168)
  • world_bank_wdi:TT.PRI.MRCH.XD.WD → terms_of_trade (controls, n=6478)

Generated by scripts/run_synth_did.py at 2026-05-15T19:29:08+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.