IESET.
Hypotheses·energy·eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp

Across the EU-27 panel 2005-2023, territorial CO2 emissions declined in absolute terms while real GDP rose -- a pattern-consistent absolute-decoupling regime.

The decoupling fact directly refutes the position that growth in advanced capitalist economies necessarily increases territorial emissions, and it survives the consumption-based-emissions cross-check at a smaller magnitude.

PARTIALengine/runs/eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0241, ratio=1.02; claim direction ambiguous

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

In plain terms, this asks whether post ets phase3 indicator is actually linked to better or worse log territorial co2 emissions from 2005 to 2023.

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0241, ratio=1.02; claim direction ambiguous

why it matters

This matters because energy claims should change belief only when they survive a pre-declared empirical test.

how the test works

It compares 27 country or place units from 2005 to 2023, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post ets phase3 indicator
What we checked
  • Log territorial co2 emissions
  • Log real income
  • Consumption based co2 per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

0 input datasets, 0 unresolved missing series, provenance status: no input vintages recorded.

Results

engine/runs/eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp
1007550250200520142023AUTBELBGRHRVCYPCZEDNK
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show log_territorial_co2_emissions across 27 sampled countries over 2005–2023.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

registration ordering unverified
first-spec commit 4c8ce8e · 2026-07-18T22:11:21Z
run generated · 2026-05-15T20:30:59Z
Run timestamp predates this path's first git-add commit (rebase, rename, or pre-git local run). Spec hash is still the path's first-add commit — not repository HEAD — but ordering is not a clean pre-registration proof.

Across the EU-27 panel 2005-2023, territorial CO2 emissions declined in absolute terms while real GDP rose -- a pattern-consistent absolute-decoupling regime. The decoupling fact directly refutes the position that growth in advanced capitalist economies necessarily increases territorial emissions, and it survives the consumption-based-emissions cross-check at a smaller magnitude.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff (a) pooled-EU territorial CO2 2023 / 2005 <= 0.85 (i.e. >= 15% absolute decline), AND (b) pooled-EU real GDP 2023 / 2005 >= 1.10 (>= 10% growth), AND (c) consumption-based CO2 per capita 2023 / 2005 <= 1.0 (no consumption-side increase). REFUTED if either (a) or (b) fails. PARTIAL if (a) and (b) hold but (c) fails (consumption-based emissions rose -- territorial decoupling is offshoring artefact). METHOD_VALID: at least 22 of 27 EU member states have both 2005 and 2023 observations on EEA inventory + WDI real GDP; OWID consumption-based panel covers >=20 EU countries.

formal test & threshold
test:      eu_27_absolute_decoupling_co2_gdp_2005_2023
threshold: PRIMARY: pooled co2_2023/co2_2005 <= 0.85 AND gdp_2023/gdp_2005 >= 1.10 AND consumption_co2_pc_2023 / consumption_co2_pc_2005 <= 1.0

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
27 countries · 2005 – 2023
Evidence type
descriptive

Two-leg descriptive test on the EU-27 panel 2005-2023. Leg A: pooled (population-weighted) territorial CO2 in 2023 vs 2005, log change. Leg B: pooled real GDP in 2023 vs 2005, log change. Absolute decoupling holds iff leg A is negative AND leg B is positive. Country-level dispersion reported in diagnostics (which countries decoupled, by how much, on which leg). Consumption-based emissions cross-check repeats Leg A on the OWID consumption-CO2 series; if territorial decoupled but consumption-based did not, the decoupling is partly offshoring and the verdict is annotated PARTIAL.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
log_territorial_co2_emissions
outcome
eea:greenhouse_gas_inventorytier 2
log
log_real_gdp
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KDtier 2
log
consumption_based_co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:consumption-co2-per-capitatier 2
log
ets_sector_verified_emissions
outcome
eea:eu_ets_verified_emissionstier 2
log
post_ets_phase3_indicator
treatment
constructed:1 from 2013 (Phase 3 cap-tightening + auctioning); secondary post-MSR indicator from 2019tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
log_oil_price
control
imf_pcps:POILAPSPtier 1
log
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — eu_ets_absolute_decoupling_emissions_gdp

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, |Δ_log|=0.0241, ratio=1.02; claim direction ambiguous

Pre-registration

  • Claim: Across the EU-27 panel 2005-2023, territorial CO2 emissions declined in absolute terms while real GDP rose -- a pattern-consistent absolute-decoupling regime. The decoupling fact directly refutes the position that growth in advanced capitalist economies necessarily increases territorial emissions, and it survives the consumption-based-emissions cross-check at a smaller magnitude.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff (a) pooled-EU territorial CO2 2023 / 2005 <= 0.85 (i.e. >= 15% absolute decline), AND (b) pooled-EU real GDP 2023 / 2005 >= 1.10 (>= 10% growth), AND (c) consumption-based CO2 per capita 2023 / 2005 <= 1.0 (no consumption-side increase). REFUTED if either (a) or (b) fails. PARTIAL if (a) and (b) hold but (c) fails (consumption-based emissions rose -- territorial decoupling is offshoring artefact). METHOD_VALID: at least 22 of 27 EU member states have both 2005 and 2023 observations on EEA inventory + WDI real GDP; OWID consumption-based panel covers >=20 EU countries.
  • Falsification test: eu_27_absolute_decoupling_co2_gdp_2005_2023

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: AUT
  • treatment_value: 26.741212195773684
  • donor_pool_median: 26.10394487372472
  • ratio: 1.0244126826474573
  • log_diff: 0.024119455828345515
  • n_donor_countries: 26
  • end_year_window: [2018, 2023]

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.MKTP.KD → log_real_gdp (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14066)
  • constructed: 1 from 2013 (Phase 3 cap-tightening + auctioning); secondary post-MSR indicator from 2019 → post_ets_phase3_indicator (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=513)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=16935)
  • imf_pcps:POILAPSP → log_oil_price (controls, publisher=imf_pcps, n=999)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_share_gdp (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)

Variables missing data

  • eea:greenhouse_gas_inventory (outcome, name=log_territorial_co2_emissions)
  • owid:consumption-co2-per-capita (outcome, name=consumption_based_co2_per_capita)
  • eea:eu_ets_verified_emissions (outcome, name=ets_sector_verified_emissions)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-05-15T20:30:59+00:00

Notes

Counter-spec to eu_ets_emissions_reduction_vs_1p5c_pathway, testing the same EU-27 trajectory but on a different falsification axis (absolute-decoupling fact) rather than pace-vs-target. Distinct from eu_green_deal_decoupling_pace_vs_target which tests the 2019-2023 Green Deal sub-window. EEA inventory + WDI GDP are on disk; OWID consumption-based CO2 panel availability for the full 27-country panel needs confirmation -- spec gates inconclusive on the consumption-side leg.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.