IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000

High-income-country per-capita material footprint (UNEP International Resource Panel "raw material equivalents" consumption-based metric) has not declined materially over 2000-2022 -- mean change across the high-income panel is within +/-10% of 2000 levels -- despite a documented decline in territorial CO2 emissions over the same window.

The consumption-based material-throughput stagnation refutes green-growth claims of broad-based decoupling and supports the PK-degrowth offshoring critique that headline emissions decoupling reflects production relocation rather than throughput reduction.

PARTIALengine/runs/high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000

PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign opposite claim - but magnitude tiny; |Δ_log|=0.0285, ratio=1.03; threshold 10.0%, observed 2.9%

confidence cueThe result is useful, but not decisive. Treat it as a clue, not a settled conclusion.

policy briefMixed or noisy

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

The evidence is suggestive but not decisive. shape=panel_summary, sign opposite claim - but magnitude tiny; |Δ_log|=0.0285, ratio=1.03; threshold 10.0%, observed 2.9%

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 20 country or place units from 2000 to 2022, using a descriptive design.

what was measured
What changed
  • Post 2000 window
What we checked
  • Material footprint per capita t
  • Log consumption based co2 per capita
  • Log territorial co2 per capita
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000
1007550250200020112022USAGBRDEUFRAJPNITACAN
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show material_footprint_per_capita_t across 20 sampled countries over 2000–2022.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000/chart_data.json.

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 098ce96 · 2026-04-30T12:57:33Z
run generated · 2026-04-30T10:11:18Z

High-income-country per-capita material footprint (UNEP International Resource Panel "raw material equivalents" consumption-based metric) has not declined materially over 2000-2022 -- mean change across the high-income panel is within +/-10% of 2000 levels -- despite a documented decline in territorial CO2 emissions over the same window. The consumption-based material-throughput stagnation refutes green-growth claims of broad-based decoupling and supports the PK-degrowth offshoring critique that headline emissions decoupling reflects production relocation rather than throughput reduction.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

SUPPORTED iff (a) pooled HIC mean MF/cap 2022 / 2000 in [0.90, 1.10] (i.e. < 10% decline AND < 10% rise -- the "unchanged" claim), AND (b) territorial-minus-consumption decoupling gap > 5 percentage points (offshoring signature visible). REFUTED if MF/cap pooled mean fell by > 15% (decoupling claim defensible) OR rose by > 15% (footprint expanded, not "stable"). PARTIAL between bounds. METHOD_VALID requires UNEP IRP / OWID material-footprint panel for >=15 of 20 HIC sample countries 2000-2022; if MF series unavailable, full inconclusive on the primary leg.

formal test & threshold
test:      hic_material_footprint_stagnation_2000_2022
threshold: PRIMARY: 0.90 <= mean(MF_pc_2022 / MF_pc_2000) <= 1.10 AND territorial-minus-consumption decoupling gap > 5 pp.

Method

Template
descriptive
Clustering
country
Sample
20 countries · 2000 – 2022
Evidence type
descriptive

Two-leg descriptive test on the high-income panel 2000-2022. Leg A (material-footprint stagnation): population-weighted mean MF/cap 2022 / 2000 within 0.90-1.10 (not materially declined). Leg B (territorial-vs-consumption divergence): population-weighted mean territorial CO2/cap 2022 / 2000 < 1.0 AND consumption-based CO2/cap 2022 / 2000 declines by less than territorial-side declines (offshoring signature). Country-level dispersion reported. Also reports MF/GDP intensity (which has declined in some HIC countries) -- the distinction between intensity-decoupling and absolute-MF decoupling is the spec's headline finding.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
material_footprint_per_capita_t
outcome
owid:material-footprint-per-capitatier 2
level
log_consumption_based_co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:consumption-co2-per-capitatier 2
log
log_territorial_co2_per_capita
outcome
owid:co-emissions-per-capitatier 2
log
log_real_gdp_per_capita
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log
post_2000_window
treatment
constructed:1 for years >= 2000tier 5
indicator
log_population
control
world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTLtier 2
log
services_share_gdp
control
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — high_income_material_footprint_unchanged_post_2000

Verdict: PARTIAL — shape=panel_summary, sign opposite claim - but magnitude tiny; |Δ_log|=0.0285, ratio=1.03; threshold 10.0%, observed 2.9%

Pre-registration

  • Claim: High-income-country per-capita material footprint (UNEP International Resource Panel "raw material equivalents" consumption-based metric) has not declined materially over 2000-2022 -- mean change across the high-income panel is within +/-10% of 2000 levels -- despite a documented decline in territorial CO2 emissions over the same window. The consumption-based material-throughput stagnation refutes green-growth claims of broad-based decoupling and supports the PK-degrowth offshoring critique that headline emissions decoupling reflects production relocation rather than throughput reduction.
  • Falsification rule: SUPPORTED iff (a) pooled HIC mean MF/cap 2022 / 2000 in [0.90, 1.10] (i.e. < 10% decline AND < 10% rise -- the "unchanged" claim), AND (b) territorial-minus-consumption decoupling gap > 5 percentage points (offshoring signature visible). REFUTED if MF/cap pooled mean fell by > 15% (decoupling claim defensible) OR rose by > 15% (footprint expanded, not "stable"). PARTIAL between bounds. METHOD_VALID requires UNEP IRP / OWID material-footprint panel for >=15 of 20 HIC sample countries 2000-2022; if MF series unavailable, full inconclusive on the primary leg.
  • Falsification test: hic_material_footprint_stagnation_2000_2022

Comparison

  • shape: panel_summary
  • treatment_country: USA
  • treatment_value: 11.033321993316289
  • donor_pool_median: 10.72324156889588
  • ratio: 1.0289166687543285
  • log_diff: 0.02850647082659652
  • n_donor_countries: 19
  • end_year_window: [2017, 2022]

Extracted threshold: {'percent': 10.0}

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → log_real_gdp_per_capita (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=14131)
  • world_bank_wdi:SP.POP.TOTL → log_population (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=17000)

Variables missing data

  • owid:material-footprint-per-capita (outcome, name=material_footprint_per_capita_t)
  • owid:consumption-co2-per-capita (outcome, name=log_consumption_based_co2_per_capita)
  • owid:co-emissions-per-capita (outcome, name=log_territorial_co2_per_capita)
  • constructed: 1 for years >= 2000 (treatment, name=post_2000_window)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS (controls, name=services_share_gdp)

Generated by scripts/run_descriptive.py at 2026-04-30T10:11:18+00:00

Notes

PK-degrowth offshoring critique against the headline-decoupling claim. UNEP IRP material-footprint per capita is the canonical consumption-based throughput metric (Wiedmann et al. 2015; Hickel & Kallis 2020). Series is not on disk in current OWID vintage of this repo (per material_footprint_cap_feasibility notes). Spec hard-gates inconclusive on the MF leg until UNEP IRP fetcher lands or OWID slug coverage extends. TODO genuinely unregistered data sources flagged here: - UNEP IRP material-footprint accounting (NOT a registered publisher in publishers.yaml). owid:material-footprint-per-capita slug exists but is not on disk in current vintage. Either register UNEP IRP directly OR extend the OWID fetcher to pull the material-footprint slug.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.