IESET.
Hypotheses·growth·uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier

UK market reforms from 1979 onward — privatisation, trade liberalisation, labour-market deregulation, and competition-policy strengthening — predict stronger long-run services-sector productivity and employment performance over 1979–2024 than comparable European corporatist regimes (France, Germany, Italy).

In a panel of large European economies, the UK shows a positive and significant differential in services value-added share, services employment share, and aggregate labour productivity relative to a synthetic counterfactual built from corporatist comparators.

INCONCLUSIVEengine/runs/uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier

INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'uk_post_1979' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

confidence cueResult card produced; verdict unclassified.

policy briefCoverage too thin

In ordinary language

Over a long period, do more market-oriented institutions translate into higher income or productivity, once the comparison looks beyond a single success story?

plain answer

This test cannot make a firm call yet. treatment 'uk_post_1979' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

why it matters

Growth claims can look convincing in single success stories. This test asks whether the pattern survives a broader comparison.

how the test works

It compares 12 country or place units from 1979 to 2024, using a panel fe design, with fixed effects for country and year.

what was measured
What changed
  • Uk post 1979
What we checked
  • Real income pc
  • Labour productivity
  • Services employment share
what this does not prove

A single test is not the whole truth. It narrows the claim under a specific sample, time period, and method. Strong policy conclusions need the pattern to survive nearby tests, alternative data, and serious objections.

verification

No evidence packet has been generated yet.

Results

engine/runs/uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier
1007550250197920022024GBRFRADEUITAESPNLDBEL
illustrative sketch · run pending
No coefficients yet. When the model fires, this chart will show real_gdp_pc across 12 sampled countries over 1979–2024.
The shapes above are stylised — none of the lines are real data.
Placeholder for uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier. Published chart will be generated from engine/runs/uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier/chart_data.json.

Who has skin in the game — schools predicting on this

11 schools list this hypothesis as a test of their position. The chips below are school-level scoreboard outcomes, not a second hypothesis verdict.

hypothesis verdict vs scoreboard outcome

The banner verdict judges this hypothesis as written. The scoreboard asks whether each school's polarity-corrected prediction was right. Raw status is not a school win: SUPPORTED supports schools that needed SUPPORTED, but refutes schools that needed REFUTED.

Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callChicago School Monetarismwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callClassical Liberalwins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callDemocratic Socialism (Bernsteinian revisionism + modern)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callStructuralist / Developmentalistwins if MIXEDpartial/no-callEmpirical Pragmatist (the framework's house position)wins if MIXEDpartial/no-callNew Institutional Economicswins if MIXEDpartial/no-callMarxism-Leninism (central-planning implementation)wins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callOrdoliberalism (Freiburg School)wins if SUPPORTEDpartial/no-callPost-Keynesianwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-callSocial Democraticwins if REFUTEDpartial/no-call

Pre-registration

pre-registered
first-spec commit 5ce4495 · 2026-05-02T19:11:20Z
run generated · 2026-06-29T17:53:06Z

UK market reforms from 1979 onward — privatisation, trade liberalisation, labour-market deregulation, and competition-policy strengthening — predict stronger long-run services-sector productivity and employment performance over 1979–2024 than comparable European corporatist regimes (France, Germany, Italy). In a panel of large European economies, the UK shows a positive and significant differential in services value-added share, services employment share, and aggregate labour productivity relative to a synthetic counterfactual built from corporatist comparators.

Falsification criterion — what would disprove this

set before the run · honoured after

This hypothesis is considered falsified if:

Refuted if the panel-FE coefficient on UK × post-1979 for labour productivity and services employment share is negative and significant at p<0.05, or if the UK’s cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is negative over 1979–2024.

formal test & threshold
test:      panel_fe_uk_services_reform
threshold: beta_uk_post1979 > 0 AND p < 0.10 for labour productivity and services employment share; synthetic_gap > 0.

Method

Template
panel_fe
Fixed effects
country, year
Clustering
country
Sample
12 countries · 1979 – 2024
Evidence type
causal

Primary: panel FE with GBR × post-1979 interaction. Secondary: synthetic control for GBR using large European corporatist comparators.

Data

VariableSourceTransform
real_gdp_pc
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
log_level
labour_productivity
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KDtier 2
level
services_employment_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZStier 2
level
services_va_share
outcome
world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZStier 2
level
uk_post_1979
treatment
constructed:1 for GBR from 1979 onwardtier 5
binary
initial_gdp_pc_1979
control
world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KDtier 2
level_at_1979
human_capital
control
pwt:hctier 3
level
trade_openness
control
world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZStier 2
level
wgi_govt_effectiveness
control
wgi:GE.ESTtier 4
level

● ready  · ● pending  · ● reconstruct-needed

Detailed result card

Result card — uk_thatcher_market_reform_40yr_services_frontier

Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_DATA_PENDING — treatment 'uk_post_1979' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Pre-registration

  • Claim: UK market reforms from 1979 onward — privatisation, trade liberalisation, labour-market deregulation, and competition-policy strengthening — predict stronger long-run services-sector productivity and employment performance over 1979–2024 than comparable European corporatist regimes (France, Germany, Italy). In a panel of large European economies, the UK shows a positive and significant differential in services value-added share, services employment share, and aggregate labour productivity relative to a synthetic counterfactual built from corporatist comparators.
  • Falsification rule: Refuted if the panel-FE coefficient on UK × post-1979 for labour productivity and services employment share is negative and significant at p<0.05, or if the UK’s cumulative log GDP-pc gap vs synthetic counterfactual is negative over 1979–2024.
  • Falsification test: panel_fe_uk_services_reform

Estimate

  • Error: treatment 'uk_post_1979' has no within-country variation under country fixed effects

Variables resolved

  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → real_gdp_pc (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.GDP.PCAP.EM.KD → labour_productivity (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=7444)
  • world_bank_wdi:SL.SRV.EMPL.ZS → services_employment_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=8071)
  • world_bank_wdi:NV.SRV.TOTL.ZS → services_va_share (outcome, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10330)
  • constructed: 1 for GBR from 1979 onward → uk_post_1979 (treatment, publisher=constructed, n=552)
  • world_bank_wdi:NY.GDP.PCAP.KD → initial_gdp_pc_1979 (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=12104)
  • pwt:hc → human_capital (controls, publisher=pwt, n=8637)
  • world_bank_wdi:NE.TRD.GNFS.ZS → trade_openness (controls, publisher=world_bank_wdi, n=10714)
  • wgi:GE.EST → wgi_govt_effectiveness (controls, publisher=wgi, n=5168)

Generated by scripts/run_panel_fe.py at 2026-06-29T17:53:06+00:00

Strongest opposing argument

Every hypothesis ships with its charitable opposing argument. The framework earns credibility by handling objections at their strongest, not weakest.

Authored framework. Read the transparency note.