AMLO Cuarta Transformación — Morena heterodox-populist turn

Doctrine — stated goals and content

Heterodox-populist Morena government implementing AMLO's "Cuarta Transformación" (Fourth Transformation) framing: rhetorical rupture with the 1982-2018 neoliberal period combined with in-practice fiscal austerity (the "republican austerity" decree of Dec 2018) that held primary balances broadly stable until late-term. Economic school: state-nationalist on energy and strategic sectors, Cárdenas-style in symbolism, with a strong social-transfer pillar; not Keynesian in the demand-management sense because discretionary fiscal stimulus was refused even during COVID-19. Four pillars: (i) fiscal austerity — Ley Federal de Austeridad Republicana (DOF 19-nov-2019), salary caps, elimination of ~100 fideicomisos, no COVID-era fiscal package; (ii) direct cash transfers scaled up — universal non-contributory pension for over-65s (constitutional right 2020, amount doubled across the term to ~MXN 6,000/bimester by 2024), Becas Benito Juárez (students), Jóvenes Construyendo el Futuro (apprenticeships), Sembrando Vida (agro-forestry payments to 450k+ smallholders); (iii) state reassertion in energy — reversal of energy-reform secondary rulings, CFE-first dispatch rule, Ley de la Industria Eléctrica reform March 2021, cancellation of Ronda auctions, construction of the Dos Bocas / Olmeca refinery in Tabasco, nationalisation of Iberdrola plants 2023; (iv) signature infrastructure by the armed forces — Tren Maya (opened segments 2023-2024, ~MXN 500bn+), Felipe Ángeles Airport (AIFA, replacing cancelled Texcoco NAIM after Oct 2018 consulta), Interoceánico corridor. Labour content: minimum wage approximately doubled in real terms (from MXN 88/day 2018 to MXN 249/day 2024, with a higher frontier-zone rate), USMCA labour chapter ratified and enforcement expanded, outsourcing reform 2021 banned most subcontracting. Popularity: won 2018 with 53.2% (first-round majority since 1988), Morena-led bloc took ~308 Cámara seats (from 500) in 2018, ~278 in 2021 mid-terms, ~364 supermajority in 2024 alongside successor Sheinbaum; AMLO's personal approval rarely dipped below 58% across the sexenio, ending around 65-75% per most trackers. Coherence line: the movement's rhetoric was anti-neoliberal but its macro management was orthodox on fiscal/monetary (Banxico autonomy unchallenged, debt-to-GDP held below ~50%); the structural turn was institutional — energy re-statification, crowding-out of private infrastructure, military-led execution of flagship projects, concentration of discretionary transfers — and set up the constitutional-reform push that Sheinbaum executed in Sep 2024.